JM Financial has put out a fresh list of 18 “high-conviction” stocks that it believes can deliver anywhere from 50-200% returns over the next three years. The list includes stocks from across a wide range of sectors, including banks, autos, infra, logistics, retail, hotels and real estate. The core filter in JM Financial’s framework is earnings momentum over a three-year period. Large caps must show the ability to compound at 14.5%, mid caps at 20.5%, and small caps at 26%. These growth thresholds shape the brokerage’s return bands for the next three years.
Here are the top picks from JM Financial
JM Financial’s top large-cap stock picks
1. ICICI Bank
ICICI Bank, valued at $110 billion, is forecast to grow advances at a 14% CAGR and deposits at a 13% CAGR through FY25–28. Profit is expected to rise about 12% annually, supported by 2.3% RoA and 16% RoE. Trading at 2.3x FY28 book, the brokerage believes the stock can return more than 50% over the next three years, based on stable earnings rather than re-rating hopes.
2. Maruti Suzuki
Maruti Suzuki, with a market cap of $55.8 billion, is expected to deliver 14% revenue CAGR over FY25–28, driven by 8% volume growth and 6% growth in average selling prices. Demand for hybrids and the commissioning of the company’s battery plant strengthen the medium-term path. JM Financial uses these growth markers, rather than a fixed upside figure, to frame its three-year view.
3. Adani Ports
Adani Ports, valued at $36 billion, handles more than 27% of India’s port cargo. EBITDA is expected to exceed Rs 22,500 crore in FY26 and cross Rs 45,000 crore in FY29, indicating a long earnings runway. With governance steps such as the removal of share pledges completed, JM Financial sees room for a valuation lift over the three-year period.
4. Eternal (Zomato)
Eternal has a market cap of $31.5 billion, with Blinkit acting as the key growth driver. Blinkit’s store count has climbed from 451 in 3QFY24 to 1,816 in 2QFY26, and management sees potential to reach 3,000 stores. Net order value in core markets is rising more than 70%, and adjusted EBITDA break-even is targeted by 1QFY27. The brokerage’s three-year view relies on this operating scale-up rather than a specific upside percentage.
5. Shriram Finance
Shriram Finance expects its loan book to grow at ~15% CAGR through FY28. Returns are projected around 3.2% RoA and 16% RoE, giving JM Financial confidence that the stock can produce more than 50% upside within three years.
6. Cholamandalam Investment
Cholamandalam is set to grow AUM at over 18% CAGR across mortgages, SME credit and auto finance. The brokerage expects the stock to generate at least 50% returns by FY28, consistent with its three-year assessment window.
JM Financial’s top midcap and smalll cap picks
1. Oil India
Oil India, valued at $7.4 billion, expects crude and gas output to rise 30–40% as the Indradhanush pipeline becomes operational. NRL’s expansion from 3 mtpa to 9 mtpa is targeted for December 2025, with utilisation expected to rise meaningfully by FY27–28. GRMs benefit from $15–16 per barrel support. These drivers form the basis of the brokerage’s three-year compounding view.
2. Vishal Mega Mart
Vishal Mega Mart, at $6.9 billion, derives 73% of revenue from private labels, which support margins. JM Financial expects 20% revenue, 27% EBITDA and 31% PAT CAGR through FY28. With store payback around 21 months, the company has visibility on expansion over the three-year horizon.
3. Phoenix Mills
Phoenix Mills has delivered 13% rental income CAGR over FY14–25, and mall consumption rose 14% YoY in Q2FY26. The company is developing six new malls, adding 7 million sq ft by FY30, and will acquire CPPIB’s 49% stake in four malls for Rs 5,400 crore. JM Financial says the stock can double in the three-year window when valued on its FY30 EBITDA potential.
4. PNB Housing
PNB Housing is expected to deliver around 2.4% RoA and 12% RoE over FY26–28. Trading at 0.9x FY28 book, the brokerage sees potential for a valuation uplift over the three-year horizon as the cleaned-up balance sheet begins to reflect in earnings
5. Aegis Logistics / Aegis Vopak (AVTL)
Aegis is expected to post 30%+ EBITDA CAGR, while AVTL is projected at 60% EBITDA CAGR through FY28. If the group executes its Rs 4 lakh crore expansion plan, Aegis could rise from Rs 760 to Rs 1,600 and AVTL from Rs 260 to Rs 800. This implies 110% upside for Aegis and over 200% upside for AVTL in the three-year timeframe, making it the strongest return call in the report.
6. Star Health
Star Health, valued at $3.1 billion, expects claims ratios to settle at 68–67% by FY27–28. EPS is projected at Rs 13, Rs 19 and Rs 24 over FY26–28. JM Financial says the stock can double over the next three years, driven by normalising claims and stable premium growth.
7. Nuvama
Nuvama manages Rs 4.4 lakh crore in client assets. EPS rose 55% in FY25, and recurring revenue improved from 30% in FY25 to 50% in 1HFY26. The brokerage expects a re-rating from 19x FY27 EPS to 24–25x, making the stock a potential doubler over three years.
8. Sagility
Sagility works with six of the top ten US health insurers. JM Financial expects 35% EPS CAGR through FY28, supported by 94% cash conversion. The three-year assessment focuses on how consistently Sagility can translate operational scale into earnings.
.9 Chalet Hotels
Chalet has seen ARR rise 15% CAGR in FY23–25 with 73% occupancy. A pipeline of 1,200 rooms and 0.9 million sq ft of commercial space supports JM Financial’s forecast of 19% revenue and 22% EBITDA CAGR through FY28, forming the basis of its three-year outlook.
10. Ajax Engineering
Ajax holds 75% share in self-loading concrete mixers. JM Financial forecasts 17% revenue CAGR and 22% EPS CAGR through FY28, supported by mechanised concrete usage rising to 41% by FY29. This positions Ajax well in the three-year compounding framework.
11. Gokaldas Exports
Gokaldas Exports saw profit drop from Rs 40 crore to Rs 8 crore due to the 50% US tariff. JM Financial notes earnings could double over the next three years if tariff conditions ease or if the EU FTA progresses.
12. SJS Enterprises
SJS expects 22% revenue, 26% EBITDA and 30% EPS CAGR through FY28, driven by rising content per vehicle and new-age aesthetics products. These markers shape a steady three-year earnings view.
The note also points out that some of the expected returns depend on factors outside the companies’ or the brokerage’s control. Oil India’s growth plan relies on when the Indradhanush pipeline becomes operational and how quickly the expanded NRL refinery ramps up. Star Health’s outlook assumes claims keep improving, as seen in the last two quarters. Gokaldas Exports’ earnings can only recover if there is movement on the 50% US tariffs or progress on the EU FTA. Phoenix Mills’ ability to double depends on its new malls opening on schedule and the effect of the CPPIB stake purchase. For Aegis and AVTL, the return story depends on the company going ahead with its planned capex. JM Financial lays these conditions out clearly, and the return estimates are based on these assumptions.