The Congress on Sunday announced that party president Rahul Gandhi will contest from Wayanad in Kerala apart from his traditional seat of Amethi in Uttar Pradesh. Soon after the announcement, Congress spokesperson Randeep Surjewala said that the party president going to Wayanad is a message to the southern states that they are deeply valued and respected.

He further said that Rahul Gandhi will continue to represent Amethi but will also represent southern states as they are an important part of India’s way of life. However, the BJP claims that the Congress president knows that he won’t win Amethi this time and that is why he is going to Kerala. The saffron party is confident to win Amethi.

Political analysts believe that the Congress president needed to contest from a safe seat since the victory margin in Amethi had come down sharply in the last Lok Sabha election. That safe seat could have been anywhere but his going to Wayanad will consolidate the vote bank for the grand old party in Southern India.

Why Wayanad in Kerala

Wayanad in northern Kerala shares its borders with Tamil Nadu and Karnataka. Contesting from Wayanad, Rahul Gandhi can cement the party’s position in three other states that have 87 Lok Sabha seats — Kerala- 20, Tamil Nadu-39 and Karnataka-28. In Wayanad, Christians and Muslims constitute close to 50 per cent vote share. This seat has been with the Congress ever since it was formed since 2009. Senior Congress leader M I Shanawaz won from here in 2009 and 2014 elections. In 2014, the Congress had won 12 of 20 seats in Kerala, 9 of 28 seats in Karnataka, and 2 of 39 seats in Tamil Nadu.

Close contest in Amethi

Rahul Gandhi has been representing Amethi since 2004. In 2004 and 2009, the Congress president had won by over 3 lakh vote margins. However, this margin came down to just 1 lakh votes in the last election. In 2014, Rahul Gandhi got 408,651 votes with just 46.71 per cent vote share and BJP candidate Smriti Irani came the second with 300,748 votes. What was surprising was the vote share of Gandhi who witnessed 25 per cent swing.

The BJP was the clear beneficiary of this swing and its vote share was up 28 per cent. It is this number that has made the BJP even more confident that it will Amethi this time. The BJP has once again fielded Smriti Irani to take on Rahul Gandhi in Amethi.