By Air Cmde TK Chatterjee(retd)
The global tender for 126 Medium Multi-Role Combat Aircraft (MMRCA) floated by India in the first decade of the 2000s ended in a complex and protracted process that ultimately did not result in the intended acquisition.
Here’s how it unfolded:
The IAF projected a requirement for about 126 aircraft in 2001. After several delays, the Request for Proposal (RFP) was issued in August 2007. Six fighter aircraft competed: the Boeing F/A-18E/F Super Hornet, the Dassault Rafale, the Eurofighter Typhoon, the Lockheed Martin F-16, the Mikoyan MiG-35, and the Saab JAS 39 Gripen. After technical evaluation, the IAF shortlisted two finalists in April 2011: the Eurofighter Typhoon and the Dassault Rafale.
On January 31, 2012, Dassault Rafale was announced as the winner due to its lower life-cycle cost. The deal was estimated to cost US$28–30 billion in 2014. Contract negotiations stalled due to disagreements over costs, technology transfer, and production guarantees. As happened in the case of the Mirage 2000 upgrade programme, Dassault also refused to give a warranty for those aircraft that were to be produced by Hindustan Aeronautics (HAL) after the initial few flyaways.
Despite efforts to finalize the deal, including expectations of signing by March 2015, the original MMRCA tender was eventually scrapped. Instead, in 2016, India opted for a direct purchase of 36 Rafale fighters in flyaway condition, moving away from the original plan of 126 aircraft with technology transfer and local production.
The MMRCA saga underscored the complexities of India’s defence procurement process and the challenges of balancing cost considerations with strategic objectives. If that initial process had been completed, the IAF would now have a fleet of over 100 Rafales, with perhaps only an upgrade needed sometime in the next decade.
Sadly, we are back at the starting block again, with a slight change in the nomenclature. It is the Multi Role Fighter Aircraft (MRFA) instead of the MMRCA. The contenders will be the same usual suspects, with variations of their previous offerings.
Two new toys add to the confusion. The Lockheed F-35 and the Sukhoi Su 57 are both vectored thrust stealth aircraft. The US government dangled the F-35 carrot to perhaps balance its trade deficit with India, whereas its contemporary, the Su 57, was always available from our good old friend in need, Russia.
If that was not enough, lurching in the background is the indigenous DRDO effort of the Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA), a fifth-generation 25-ton class twin-engine stealth aircraft. Its first flight is planned for 2028, and its induction is planned for 2034, using the LCA benchmark, give or take another 25 years.
With so many options, it would not be surprising if the government, backed by its all-knowing bureaucracy, acted like a child in a toy store. Due to its practiced and perfected art of indecisiveness, it may ultimately end up with nothing, leaving the IAF perpetually chasing HAL to fulfill its production promises of the LCA so that the IAF can fulfill its promises to the country’s national security.
If the uncharacteristically polite and accommodating attitude of the POTUS towards the visiting Indian PM is any indicator, it seems obvious that big promises have been made by either party. Many in the media are wondering what has caused the US fear of exposing the radar signatures of the F35 to the Russian S400 system being used by India to suddenly become a nonissue! In a drastically changed geopolitical order of the world, since Russia is no longer the enemy of the USA, such fears are indeed out of place. India should stand by to welcome F-35s, Teslas, and Harley-Davidsons, without having to worry about Russia because, in today’s scenario, they will certainly look the other way. In return, what does India get? Plane loads of illegal immigrants bound in chains.
India is a wealthy nation with significant purchasing power; however, it has seldom leveraged this power for the country’s strategic benefit. The government’s offset policy, which requires vendors to reinvest a considerable percentage of the contractual amount back into the country, has not yielded any long-term strategic advantages. China placed orders with Airbus, in turn, got them to establish domestic manufacturing and assembly lines, acquired the necessary technologies, and now has its own version of single-aisle, medium-range commercial aircraft. Meanwhile, we remain limited to producing doors and windows for airplanes despite ordering hundreds of aircraft from both Boeing and Airbus. This situation is not the fault of the Tatas, Mahindras, or Ambanis. It arises from the absence of strategic thinking by successive governments that have ruled the country, whose vision extends only as far as the next election.
In India, our indigenous design and development progress is incredibly slow, causing our nation to constantly look outward to close the capability gap with our immediate adversaries. The more we invest in foreign acquisitions, the less we will allocate to fostering indigenous R&D, leading to a widening capability gap over time. This creates a vicious cycle.
Aircraft with vectored thrust and high thrust-to-weight ratios are excellent for airshows. Their astonishing agility and capacity to perform manoeuvres that defy the laws of aerodynamics are impressive to watch and are the dream of any fighter pilot. However, based on my experience, I have not seen any of them utilize these extraordinary manoeuvrability features in large-force engagements in BVR scenarios. What is more necessary is better sensor fusion and a more resilient data network with longer-range weapons. All of this can be achieved with electronic upgrades to our current fleet. We do not need to introduce new platforms, certainly not one as expensive as the F-35, every time we attempt to close the so-called capability gaps and become reliant on nations that are utterly untrustworthy.
We must be extremely cautious about finding ourselves in a situation where we become dependent on a country that is currently destabilizing its long-standing allies, betraying a nation that was lured into believing it could join an elite military alliance and is now on track to carve out Ukraine just as their predecessors did with Germany after WWII.
But now that the US government has legitimised the bribing of foreign governments by American companies, it will not be surprising if the F-35 is inducted through a government-to-government deal.
Anyway, for the IAF, it will be a win-win situation.
The author is an Indian Air Force Veteran.
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