Axis Securities top 15 picks for October with as much as 30% upside potential

Axis Securities has released its lists of top picks for October. It has selected 15 stocks with a potential upside of over 30% in some. As per the brokerage house, markets have corrected, near-term consolidation is likely and policy nudges and rate relief set the stage for an earnings recovery going forward. 

Top 15 stocks to ‘Buy’ as per Axis Securities 

Here is a list of 15 top picks by Axis Securities in October with ratings, target prices, upside potential, and the investment rationale for each. 

Axis Securities on Max Healthcare: ‘Buy’

A ‘Buy’ on Max Healthcare comes with a target of Rs 1,450, the potential upside of 28.0%. Axis cited robust growth in average revenue per occupied bed (ARPOB), improved occupancy, and capacity additions across metro hospitals. The company is benefiting from both domestic and medical tourism demand.

Margins are expected to stay above 25%, and Axis believes Max is well positioned to deliver 20%+ earnings growth for the next two years.

Axis Securities on Hero MotoCorp: ‘Buy’

Axis assigns a ‘Buy’ to Hero MotoCorp, targeting Rs 6,245, implying 11.0% upside from Rs 5,473. The brokerage notes that Hero’s premiumisation strategy and focus on new launches are starting to pay off. Rural markets are stabilising as inflation eases, while EV initiatives under Vida are gaining traction. Axis expects double-digit volume growth in FY26 and improving margins as raw material costs remain contained.

Axis Securities on APL Apollo Tubes: ‘Buy’

Axis maintains a ‘Buy’ on APL Apollo Tubes with a target price of Rs 1,950, translating to 12.3%. The company remained a dominant player in the structural steel space, with capacity expansion driving operating leverage. Axis expects higher utilisation in FY26, aided by real estate and infrastructure demand. It’s a mid-cap industrial compounder with consistent execution, low leverage, and a clear earnings trajectory.

Axis Securities on Prestige Estates Projects: ‘Buy’

 Axis continued a ‘Buy’ on Prestige Estates Projects with a target of Rs 2,000, reflecting 30.2% upside.

The brokerage noted Prestige as one of the few real estate developers sustaining record pre-sales while keeping leverage low. New launches in luxury and commercial projects are supporting strong cash flows.
Axis expects the company’s South India strength to translate into all-India scale in FY26–27.

Axis Securities on Kalpataru Projects International: ‘Buy’

 Axis reiterated a ‘Buy’ on Kalpataru Projects International, with a target of Rs 1,470, an upside of around 16.4%. With an order book exceeding Rs 55,000 crore, Kalpataru remains one of the most diversified infrastructure players spanning power transmission, oil & gas, and civil engineering. Execution efficiency and margin stability continue to impress.

Axis expects sustained revenue growth and sees it as a clean way to play India’s infrastructure cycle.

Axis Securities on Kirloskar Brothers: ‘Buy’

Axis assigns a ‘Buy’ to Kirloskar Brothers with a target of Rs 2,330, offering 16.1% upside. The firm called it an underrated engineering turnaround story. Order inflows are healthy, export markets are expanding, and cost controls are improving margins.

Axis expects rising utilisation and capex rationalisation to unlock further operating leverage, with profitability scaling meaningfully over the next few quarters.

Axis Securities on Sansera Engineering: ‘Buy’

Axis concluded with a ‘Buy’ on Sansera Engineering, setting a target price of Rs 1,580, translating to possibly 9.0% upside.

The company’s transition from auto to diversified precision components is paying off. Sansera is building a non-auto vertical, aerospace, defence, and off-highway, which now accounts for a growing share of its order book, the brokerage added.
Axis expects steady 12–13% revenue growth and improving return ratios through FY27.

Axis Securities on Bajaj Finance: ‘Buy’

Axis Securities maintained a ‘Buy’ rating on Bajaj Finance with a target price of Rs 1,100, offering nearly 8.1% upside from the current market price.

The brokerage rationaled that Bajaj Finance is one of the most disciplined lenders in the market, a company that knows when to push growth and when to hold the line. After a phase of caution in unsecured lending, Bajaj Finance has refocused on asset quality, reducing its Karnataka exposure by nearly 50% and restructuring only Rs 219 crore of standard advances, with another Rs 150 crore expected in Q2.

Axis expects NIMs to improve by about 10 basis points in FY26, as borrowing costs ease. Cost of funds should fall to 7.6–7.65% from 7.79%, driven by cheaper deposits and bond issuances. The brokerage projects margins in the 8.9–9.0% range over FY26–28, backed by steady 22–23% loan growth.

Axis Securities on State Bank of India: ‘Buy’

Axis retains a ‘Buy’ on State Bank of India with a target price of Rs 1,025, implying 17.9%.
It called SBI “the quiet compounder.” The country’s largest lender continues to grow without noise, supported by robust demand for corporate and retail credit. Its corporate sanctions pipeline now stands at Rs 7.2 lakh crore , underlining healthy utilisation in power, infrastructure, and manufacturing.

Slippages in Q1FY26 were controlled at Rs 7,940 crore, with recoveries of Rs 1,590 crore already booked. Credit cost remains benign, and Axis expects loan growth to sustain at 12–13% through FY26.

Axis Securities on HDFC Bank: ‘Buy’

Axis assigned a ‘Buy’ on HDFC Bank, setting a target of Rs 1,150, a potential 16.6% upside. Despite short-term pressure post-merger, Axis sees HDFC Bank regaining its rhythm. Deposit mobilisation has stabilised, and funding costs are expected to decline as rate cuts filter through. The bank’s retail engine continues to lead, and digital lending initiatives are improving cross-sell productivity.

Axis expects credit growth of 14–15% and consistent margin recovery from H2FY26, making it one of the top large-cap financial picks for investors seeking stability with growth.

Axis Securities on Bharti Airtel: ‘Buy’

Axis remained Bullish on Bharti Airtel, maintaining a ‘Buy’ with a target price of Rs 2,300, an upside of 20.7%.
It described Airtel as a “premium play in a value market.” With tariff hikes likely post the next spectrum cycle, Axis expects ARPU to rise steadily. The company’s balance sheet remains strong, and 5G rollout costs are being offset by operating leverage in high-ARPU urban markets.

Airtel’s Africa operations have stabilised, while enterprise and broadband businesses are scaling. Axis called it a “core compounder in communication services,” with long-term earnings visibility.

Axis Securities on Shriram Finance: ‘Buy’

Axis reiterated a ‘Buy’ on Shriram Finance with a target of Rs 750, reflecting 12.2% upside. The brokerage pointed out that the merger benefits have begun to play out better funding access, synergy in collections, and stronger cross-sell capabilities. With interest rates easing, Shriram stands to benefit the most among NBFCs focused on commercial vehicles and rural credit.
NIMs are expected to hold near 8.5%, while credit growth should reaccelerate as used-vehicle demand improves and rural liquidity normalises.

Axis Securities on Avenue Supermarts: ‘Buy’

Axis kept a ‘Buy’ on Avenue Supermarts (DMart), with a target price of Rs 5,280, offering 23.4% upside. The brokerage admitted  valuations are rich but argued they’re justified. DMart continues to lead India’s organised retail space, combining aggressive expansion with cost discipline. Store productivity has improved, and same-store sales growth is trending higher than pre-pandemic levels, it reasoned.

Axis expects healthy margin recovery as supply chain costs ease and private-label contribution increases.

Axis Securities on Mahanagar Gas: ‘Buy’

Axis has added Mahanagar Gas to its Top Picks this month, rating it a ‘Buy’ with a target price of Rs 1,540, indicating 17.9% upside.

The brokerage cited its stable business model, strong balance sheet, and dividend track record. Lower LNG prices have boosted margins, while industrial and transport gas demand is showing steady growth.

Axis called it a defensive bet that provides both yield and earnings visibility, the kind of stock that holds a portfolio steady when volatility rises elsewhere.

Axis Securities on Lupin: ‘Buy’

Axis maintained a ‘Buy’ on Lupin with a target price of Rs 2,400, implying 25.0%. It says Lupin is in the middle of a credible turnaround, with respiratory launches in the US and strong India formulations business driving earnings momentum. Operating margins are stabilising, and new product approvals could add incremental upside.

Axis expects FY26–27 to mark Lupin’s sustained comeback phase, led by expansion in high-margin complex generics.

Axis Securities on Max Healthcare: ‘Buy’

A ‘Buy’ on Max Healthcare comes with a target of Rs 1,450, the potential upside of 28.0%. Axis cited robust growth in average revenue per occupied bed (ARPOB), improved occupancy, and capacity additions across metro hospitals. The company is benefiting from both domestic and medical tourism demand.

Margins are expected to stay above 25%, and Axis believes Max is well positioned to deliver 20%+ earnings growth for the next two years.

Risks and caveats

Axis was explicit about the downside, “Trade and tariff frictions, including recent US trade actions,  earnings and IT, keeping a lid on re-rating for exporters,” they added. The brokerage house also identified that currency weakness remained a persistent margin channel. Axis warned that the market must see concrete earnings upgrades before multiples expand.