Chhattisgarh Polls: The Election Commission of India on Monday announced the poll dates for the Chhattisgarh Assembly elections. The state goes to polls in two phases – on November 7 and 17 – and the counting of votes will take place on December 3, along with four other states.
Soon after the ECI’s announcement, incumbent Chief Minister and Congress leader Bhupesh Baghel said that the “party was ready”, and the “war has started” for the “self respect of the people of the people of Chhattisgarh”.
With less than a month left for the first phase of Chhattisgarh elections, here are the factors that are at play in the run-up to the polls:
State’s electoral history
The BJP was ousted in the 2018 Assembly elections, after a rule spanning 15 years (2003-2018). The Congress won a landslide victory bagging 68 seats then, with the party aiming to win the upcoming elections riding on strong local leadership and pro-poor and welfare schemes. The BJP, on the other hand, was restricted to 15 seats.
This marked the first time that the Congress won an election and formed a government in the state, and did so with a resounding mandate. The battle in the state has so far remained bipolar between the BJP and Congress. However, the entry of AAP into the poll fray makes it a triangular contest this time. The Congress-AAP battle in the state will be a key contest to watch out for in the larger dynamics of the Lok Sabha elections where both parties are part of the Opposition’s INDIA bloc.
Farmers’ issues:
The Congress’ poll promise for a farm loan waiver and an increase in the Minimum Support Price (MSP) of paddy from Rs 2,100 to Rs 2,500 was a total game changer for the party in the 2018 Assembly elections.
In the 2023 polls too, a major election issue is paddy procurement with the Congress and the BJP engaged in a tug of war over what is known as dhaan ka katora (rice bowl). While the BJP says it is the Centre that procures paddy from the state and that the Congress is just taking credit for it, the ruling Congress says it is the state government’s Rajiv Gandhi Nyay Yojana that gives input subsidy to farmers for growing paddy and that the scheme has benefited rice farmers.
Just ahead of the elections, the Cabinet had cleared a proposal to procure more paddy from the farmers. CM Baghel has said that his government will give Rs 2,800 per quintal of paddy and buy 2,000 kg from November 1, 2023.
Corruption charges:
The Congress government is accused of corruption in several cases, including alleged “liquor scam” worth over Rs 2,000 crore, alleged Public Distribution System (PDS) or Nagrik Apurti Nigam (NAN) scam, corruption in government job appointments, management of District Mineral Funds, among others.
The BJP had in 2022 moved a no-confidence motion against the Baghel-led government during the monsoon session, accusing it of failing on all fronts including law and order and farmers’ welfare. It had also presented an 84-point chargesheet against the state government. However, after a 13-hour debate, the no-confidence motion was defeated by voice vote in the state assembly, where the Congress has 71 members and the BJP 13.
OBC reservation:
Another factor that could affect this election is that of OBC reservation. The Congress and Opposition parties have been pushing for OBC quota. In December 2022, the Baghel-led government had passed two Bills in the state Assembly aiming to increase the reservation for Other Backward Classes (OBCs) to 27 per cent for STs to 32 per cent, SCs to 13 per cent and Economically Weaker Sections to four per cent. This move would have elevated the total reservation in the state to 76 per cent. The Bills were submitted to then Governor of Chhattisgarh, Anusuiya Uikey for her approval. However, it has not received her assent yet.
Political parties can be likely seen making the OBC quota a part of their poll campaign.
Women’s issues:
In the upcoming elections, women voters will play a crucial role, and over the last few elections, women voters have also seen a steady rise. According to the State Election Commission’s record, 1,02,39,410 women voters in Chhattisgarh have outnumbered male voters by 1,18,580. This is very significant in the backdrop of the passing of the Women’s Reservation Bill, which the BJP takes credit for.
Meanwhile, the Congress, which has won a massive mandate in Karnataka, where it promised free travel for women in public transport buses, is also likely to bring up schemes that affect the women’s electorate. The BJP can also invoke the passing of the Women’s Reservation Bill in its poll speeches.
Unemployment:
Despite being ranked first among states with the lowest unemployment rate in the country, with an unemployment rate of about 0.6 per cent (March 2022), this could also be an election plank, and the BJP and the Congress can be seen in a tough fight to woo the voters over employment.
It is likely that monthly allowances might be given to unemployed youths.