In an unprecedented move, incoming U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio will host foreign ministers from Japan, Australia, and India on the sidelines of President-elect Donald Trump’s swearing-in ceremony. This meeting of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) nations marks an important moment in global diplomacy, signaling that the Quad will remain central to U.S. foreign policy during Trump’s second term. The Quad — consisting of the United States, Japan, India, and Australia — is poised to become an even more significant force in the Indo-Pacific region as tensions with China continue to escalate.
What is the Quad?
The Quad is a strategic partnership formed between four democracies: the United States, Japan, India, and Australia. Initially conceived as a response to regional security concerns, it has grown into a broader coalition focused on economic, environmental, and technological issues, as well as security. Although the grouping is often referred to as an “Asian NATO” by critics — particularly in China — it is not a formal military alliance but rather a diplomatic platform for cooperation.
The Quad first emerged in 2007 under the leadership of Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, U.S. President George W. Bush, Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, and Australian Prime Minister John Howard. However, the grouping lost momentum shortly after its inception due to various geopolitical challenges. It was not until 2017 that the Trump administration reenergized the Quad, positioning it as a counterbalance to China’s growing influence in the Indo-Pacific region. The dialogue was initially held at the vice-ministerial level, but in 2019 it moved to a foreign ministers’ level, reflecting the increasing importance of the Quad in global geopolitics.
The Significance of the First Quad Foreign Ministers’ Meeting
The fact that the first official meeting of Quad foreign ministers will take place during the inauguration of Donald Trump’s second term highlights the renewed commitment of the U.S. to the grouping. Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s leadership will be pivotal in setting the tone for future Quad initiatives. Foreign Ministers Takeshi Iwaya of Japan, Penny Wong of Australia, and Subrahmanyam Jaishankar of India will join Rubio at this historic gathering, marking a key moment for the Quad.
This meeting is expected to lay the groundwork for a Quad Leaders’ Summit later in the year. The summit will offer the four countries a platform to discuss shared security concerns in the Indo-Pacific, including China’s assertiveness in the region, freedom of navigation in the South China Sea, and economic resilience in the face of growing geopolitical uncertainties.
The Quad’s Role in Countering China
For China, the Quad has been a long-standing source of concern, frequently viewed as a bloc aimed at containing its growing influence. Chinese officials have long criticized the Quad, labeling it an attempt to form an “Asian NATO” and accusing it of meddling in regional conflicts under the guise of ensuring freedom of navigation. In particular, upcoming joint coast guard exercises by the Quad countries have raised alarms in Beijing, who view them as part of a broader strategy to curb China’s maritime ambitions.
However, it’s important to note that the Quad is not solely a counter-China alliance. While Beijing’s expansion in the Indo-Pacific is a significant driver of the grouping’s activities, the Quad has increasingly addressed other global challenges, including climate change, technological innovation, and health security.
What to Expect from Trump 2.0 and the Quad’s Future
Under Trump’s leadership, the Quad is expected to take a more security-focused approach, with an emphasis on burden-sharing among the four nations. The Quad, according to U.S. officials like Rubio, will continue to operate on the principle that all members contribute equitably to regional stability. This could translate into more active military and maritime cooperation, though the grouping’s broadening agenda suggests that economic and technological concerns will also remain at the forefront.
The second Trump administration is likely to intensify the Quad’s focus on countering China. Figures like Rubio and Mike Waltz, both staunch proponents of strengthening U.S. alliances in the Indo-Pacific, are expected to push for more robust actions in the region. This could include increased military presence, expanded joint military exercises, and more comprehensive diplomatic efforts aimed at isolating China’s influence.
However, the Quad faces internal challenges, particularly given the varying priorities of its members. India, while a key partner in countering China, has been cautious in its engagement with the U.S. due to its complex relationship with Beijing. Australia, on the other hand, maintains strong economic ties with China, which complicates its position within the Quad. Japan, too, faces its own security dilemmas, including territorial disputes with China in the East China Sea. Despite these challenges, the Quad has proven resilient, with each nation acknowledging the need for closer collaboration to maintain peace and stability in the region.
The Quad’s Growing Influence on Global Affairs
The Quad’s evolution reflects the shifting dynamics of global power. Once viewed primarily as a security bloc, it has expanded its reach to address broader issues such as economic resilience, climate change, and global health. The upcoming Quad Leaders’ Summit, which India is set to host in 2025, will be a defining moment for the grouping, as it looks to solidify its role as a central actor in shaping global norms and responses to emerging challenges.
India’s External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar recently stated that the Quad has come a long way since its revival in 2017. He noted that the U.S. under Trump has played a pivotal role in reinvigorating the Quad, and that the grouping’s growing influence is now evident in its expansive agenda. He also highlighted that despite varying levels of engagement, all Quad nations contribute equally to the partnership, ensuring a fair distribution of responsibilities.
The upcoming Quad Leaders’ Summit in 2025 will likely focus on Indo-Pacific security but will also address broader global issues such as climate change, technological innovation, and economic cooperation. As the Quad’s role expands, it will continue to play a central part in shaping the geopolitical landscape in the Indo-Pacific and beyond.