By Anita Inder Singh
Countries espousing multipolarity against the lone superpower are themselves divided on leadership of the so-called Global South—which is a fuzzy term for low and middle-income countries stretching from Latin America to Asia. India’s Asian rival, China aims to lead that large and diverse group. But India also faces challenges to its attempt to lead the South from Brazil, a friendly partner in BRICS, and Indonesia, its second-largest trading partner in southeast Asia.
Brazil and Indonesia are smaller, less heavily populated, and less militarised than India and China. But they are economically ahead of India and can shore up their global influence through economic means and bid for a front-rank place in the South. India has raised issues affecting southern countries at international forums but so have they.
Delhi claimed that the recent G20 summit amplified the voice of the South by admitting the African Union as a member, but even that will not suffice to secure the support of African countries for India’s leadership. While welcoming the inclusion of the AU in the G20, South Africa has dismissed the idea that one country will be the leader of the Global South.
At another level, the contest for leadership of the global South is often seen as one between Asia’s two rising Asian competitors, China and India—but Southern countries can challenge the attempts of both to lead. They are unlikely to accept India’s claims to be a vishwaguru. or China’s offer to guard them against Western domination.
Meeting US president Joe Biden in Washington in late September, Brazil’s president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva made the case for his country’s leadership of the developing world. At a time when India’s democratic credentials and reliability as a partner of the West are in question, in part because of its ongoing diplomatic row with Canada, Lula defended political liberalism, including freedom from discrimination, to organise, and of the press. He presented himself as a leader with whom other countries sharing those values could cooperate.
Brazil gains prominence with its $7,507.16 GDP per capita. India’s is $2,256.59. Brazil is prominent as a member of several regional economic organisations— Mercosur, the South American trade bloc, the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States, the Forum for East Asia-Latin America Cooperation, and the Organisation of American States. India does not have a strong position in any Asian regional organisation.
In Asia, Indonesia holds geographical and economic keys that highlight its position as a leading country in the Indo-Pacific. Situated between the Indian and Pacific Oceans, it claims to be the fulcrum of the region. It is the largest economy of the ASEAN and is building economic ties with Western countries and Africa. Indonesia holds the rotating chair of ASEAN this year and preceded India as president of the G20 last year. In late August, President Widodo’s first trip to four African countries included Kenya, Tanzania and Mozambique, before arriving in South Africa for the BRICS summit. Rallying the South against discrimination, he showed vision in Kenya when he pointed to an entry for that country into ASEAN, “and Kenya can be an entry for Indonesia into the sub-Saharan Africa [markets].”
India has championed developing nations and is trying to enhance its status as an Asian power. But its $3.7 trillion economy does not suffice to secure the top position. Most ASEAN countries including Japan and South Korea have made more progress, and Japan’s increased defence spending could make it the world’s third-largest military power in the foreseeable future.
Meanwhile, many developing countries are impressed by China’s rise from poverty and its global focus on development through trade, loans, and infrastructure projects, although some of them have become indebted to Beijing.
Beijing expresses confidence that China has gained a headstart over India in the areas that matter most to developing countries—development finance, infrastructure, and trade. Striking an anti-Western note, China says it is part of the South, and that it offers less developed countries an alternative to what it denounces as “Western hegemony”.
One problem with countering China is its still dominant position in global supply chains. No single country can replace it. But Vietnam—having amicable ties with India—is currently the strongest alternate location to reduce dependence on China. It is a robust trading country with a GDP per capita of $3,756.49. It has entered into more than 20 Free Trade Agreements and Double Tax Avoidance Agreements with ASEAN, Japan, South Korea, and the European Union and Latin American countries. Although its economy is not as strong as China’s, it has, unlike India, unreservedly joined the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, where China is the strongest economy, a threat to Vietnam’s maritime territory; and the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, which includes countries better off than itself in North and Latin America, Asia, Australia, and New Zealand. Vietnam thus balances political friction with China with strong global trade relations.
Concurrence on increasing life chances on a level playing field does not imply that global South countries have chosen a leader. Working with the UN to share India’s best economic practices with the South is fine, but India should also be willing to study the experiences of southern countries that have surpassed it economically and have acquired global influence.
Anita Inder Singh is the Founding professor at Centre for Peace and Conflict Resolution, New Delhi.
Disclaimer: Views are personal.