Eminent journalist and former Union minister Arun Shourie had suggested, while serving in the then Vajpayee led-National Democratic Alliance government, India’s information technology (IT) sector should work to make the US industry champion its cause, since it was the biggest beneficiary. Going by the turn that the current controversy over H-1B visas in the US has taken, it would not be wrong to conclude that India’s software services sector has succeeded in achieving what Shourie suggested. The latest controversy, fuelled by the appointment of Indian-origin venture capitalist Sriram Krishnan as artificial intelligence policy advisor in Donald Trump’s incoming administration, highlights the nuanced interplay of talent mobility, economic growth, and political ideology.
India, as the largest beneficiary of the H-1B visa programme, has much at stake. Indian professionals account for over 70% of H-1B visa holders, underscoring their critical role in the US tech sector. The programme provides skilled Indian workers opportunities in STEM (science, technology, engineering, and maths) fields, contributing not only to their personal growth but also to India’s economic ecosystem through remittances and expertise. Any policy shifts that tighten the programme could significantly impact India’s talent pipeline and economic relations with the US. However, the US also stands to gain much from this programme, and this is what has led to deep divisions within Trump’s coalition. While tech leaders like Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy champion H-1B visas as essential for maintaining US competitiveness, far-right conservatives argue they displace American workers, betraying the America First agenda. Musk, himself an H-1B beneficiary, has emphatically said that importing elite talent prevents America from lagging behind rivals like China. What the President-elect has highlighted is the indispensable role of global talent, especially in STEM, where shortages in the US labour market persist.
Figures like Steve Bannon and Laura Loomer have lambasted Musk and Ramaswamy’s stance, accusing Trump’s tech-friendly appointments of undermining American workers. But this seems to be more grounded in nativist rhetoric, as data does not back such claims. Indian professionals, including H-1B holders, have also faced layoffs amid industry downturns and have not been shielded from economic realities. Trump’s endorsement of the H-1B programme, alongside his suggestion to grant green cards to STEM graduates, marks a departure from his earlier restrictive stance on immigration. This shift may reflect a pragmatic approach to addressing labour market gaps while appeasing influential allies in Silicon Valley. Similarly, Musk’s proposal to raise the programme’s minimum salary and implement annual fees for visa maintenance is both practical and sensible. This could incentivise local hiring while preserving the programme’s core purpose.
As for India, the stakes extend beyond individual opportunities. The $260-billion Indian IT services sector, which has long depended on H-1B visas to place workers in the US, has already adapted to high visa denial rates by increasing local hiring and expanding offshore operations. This trend underscores how restrictive immigration policies not only disrupt talent flows but also push Indian firms to seek alternatives, potentially reducing their dependence on US markets over time. However, as India aspires to become a global technology hub, the H-1B visa remains a critical avenue for its engineers and professionals to gain exposure to cutting-edge technology and innovation ecosystems. As Trump prepares to take office, striking a balance between economic pragmatism and political rhetoric will be critical, not only for the US but also for its key partners like India.