Amid the ongoing Navratri festival in India, there has been a surge in Gold prices. At the time of writing today (October 23), 24-carat gold was selling at Rs 6145 per gram in Mumbai, up by around Rs 1350 per gram since October 17. The eruption of a fresh conflict in West Asia is being seen as the prime reason behind the recent surge in Gold prices.
Experts say Gold prices have appreciated sharply from Rs 56,000 to Rs 60000 in 10 days as an escalation in the Israel-Hamas conflict spurred concerns over a spillover into the broader Middle East region, which in turn fuelled demand for conventional safe haven assets.
The investment demand and physical retail demand are back, supporting the prices.
“The fundamental and technical landscape has improved with a long-term bullish view. I expect prices to trade at least 10% higher from current levels by next year, so auspicious day like Dusshera is the best time to buy Gold,” says Prithviraj Kothari, MD CEO of RSBL (RiddiSiddhi Bullions Limited).
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Gold is considered a safe haven asset, especially in times of geopolitical uncertainties. According to Emkay Wealth Management, gold is expected to trend higher in the immediate term.
“Technically the price targets for gold remain at US$ 1990 and US$ 2030. Contrary to the usual trend of gold moving up significantly in the weaker dollar scenario, the safe haven status has assumed significance despite a strong dollar scenario,” the wealth management firm said in a statement.
“The ongoing Middle East conflict has impelled investors’ preference for Gold which has resulted in upward price mobility in the asset class,” it added.
The statement said Gold prices have remained well supported at the US$1880 and US$1860 levels.
Taking a perspective before the situation of conflict arose, despite persistent inflation across all major economies, gold was not able to rise much because with inflation came extremely hawkish monetary policy which pushed interest rates higher, it said.
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The rise in money market yields made currency yields attractive and this has resulted in gold moving sideways most of the time. But the more interesting fact is that gold prices have not broken through any key support levels convincingly in the last three months.
On the supply front, the expectation is that fresh supply from the mines as well as of used gold will be relatively high.
“We also expect continued demand from central banks. An easing monetary policy stance projected to come into effect in mid-2024 which will help bring an incremental value to the investors taking long positions from now,” the firm said.