A recent survey gauging the mood of the people of Rajasthan claimed that the Bharatiya Janata Party is on track to form a government in the state, displacing the Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot-led Congress government from power. The findings are in tune with the trend seen in Rajasthan where no party has come to power in the state for a successive term in close to three decades.
As per the ABP-CVoter survey findings released last week, the BJP was projected to win 109-119 seats in the 200-member Assembly with a vote share of 45.8 per cent while the Congress may have to settle between 78-88 seats garnering a lower vote share of 41 per cent. Among other players, Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) is expected to secure 0-2 seats, with a projected vote share of 0.7 per cent, while ‘Others’ may win 1-5 seats, with a vote share of 12.5 per cent.
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While the BJP may find itself sitting pretty three months away from polls, internal rumblings threaten to destabilise its position of comfort. Factionalism and power games have spread disquiet in the BJP rank and file as much as it did in the Congress camp. The only solace for the BJP being that the rumblings have never been as public as that of its rival.
Yet, the sidelining of Vasundhara Raje, former two-time Chief Minister, has been evident. The central leadership of the party, which has been unimpressed with Raje’s style of functioning ever since the 2018 defeat, is learnt to have blocked all bids by individual leaders to launch separate yatras fearing a turf war. The BJP will now launch a united Sankalp Yatra next week which will be green-flagged by BJP national president JP Nadda, and will see prominent Union ministers from the party leading it through the state with state leaders playing second fiddle.
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It has also been reliably learnt that the BJP is deliberating upon entering the elections without a CM face, making its discomfort in naming Vasundhara Raje Scindia as the party’s choice evident. However, the BJP knows it cannot risk naming anyone else either. Attempts to install an alternative in the form of Gajendra Singh Shekhawat and Satish Poonia have fallen flat with neither matching up to Raje’s popularity and stature within the party.
Now, the ABP-CVoter survey reflects an opinion that could potentially compound the problems of the BJP leadership. As per the survey, 38 per cent of the respondents who support the BJP believe that Raje is best suited as Chief Minister from the BJP camp, followed by Shekhawat at 18 per cent and Poonia at 11 per cent.
Overall, incumbent Ashok Gehlot was the top choice as Chief Minister among the respondents at 35 per cent, followed by Vasundhara Raje at 25 per cent, Sachin Pilot at 19 per cent and Gajendra Singh Shekhawat and Rajyavardhan Singh Rathore with 9 per cent and 5 per cent, respectively.
The survey findings further suggest that the BJP’s strategy to enter the elections may not prove beneficial to the party in the coming polls. As per the survey, a resounding 61.7 per cent voters felt that the party should project a CM face while only 27.5 per cent of these respondents believed that the strategy to defer the selection of Chief Minister till after the elections was electorally wise.
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Assembly elections are scheduled to be held in Rajasthan in November-December this year. In the 2018 Assembly elections, the Congress-led alliance secured 100 seats followed by the BJP which won 73 seats.
The Congress went on to form a government with the support of Independents and smaller parties and Ashok Gehlot was appointed the Chief Minister.