Rajasthan Assembly Election 2023 Opinion poll result: The stage is set for the most keenly anticipated electoral contests this year. The western state of Rajasthan, which has always oscillated between alternative governments for the past five decades, is set to go to polls in November-December this year. While the state has had a stable government for the past four and a half years, there hasn’t been a dull moment in the state’s politics.
While the first half of Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot’s term saw a rebellion by his deputy and then RPCC president Sachin Pilot, almost bringing down the Congress government, the second half was ridden with a series of paper leaks and exam cancellations, leading to protests and another threat of a revolt by Pilot. This period also saw allegations against the Gehlot administration for “going soft” on incidents of alleged corruption against the erstwhile regime of the BJP under then CM Vasundhara Raje.
In the latest setback to Gehlot, the government sacked its own minister Rajendra Singh Gudha for raising the plight of women’s security in the state Assembly and urging the government to look inwards before questioning the BJP on the Manipur issue. The disgruntled leader went on a rampage against the government, claiming that a red diary he had in his possession could bring the Gehlot government down.
Come November and five states will enter the poll hustings, but Rajasthan will surely be the most keenly watched. The constant churning and the unpredictability of the electorate here have made these polls the most closely watched. The BJP and the Congress are the only two main political parties in the elections in Rajasthan.
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Rajasthan election results 2013 vs 2018
In the elections held in 2013, the BJP swept the polls bagging 162 of the 200 seats with a vote share of 45.2 per cent with Vasundhara Raje being sworn in as the Chief Minister. The Congress, on the other hand, finished a distant second with 21 seats and a vote share of 33.1 per cent.
However, the tables turned in the elections in 2018 as the Congress alliance emerged on top, winning 100 seats with a vote share of 39.30 per cent, marginally above the BJP. The saffron party, on the other hand, bagged only 73 seats despite garnering a vote share of 38.77 per cent. The Congress went on to form the government with the backing of Independent MLAs and the BSP.
Rajasthan Election 2023: Opinion poll prediction
According to a recent opinion poll survey conducted by ABP-CVoter, the Bharatiya Janata Party is expected to return to power after a five-year hiatus. The survey findings suggest that the BJP may finish with 109-119 seats, comfortably above the majority mark of 101 seats in the 200-member Assembly.
The Congress, on the other hand, maybe pushed out of power for the next five years, with the survey predicting 78-88 seats for the Ashok Gehlot-led party. Independents and other parties are likely to settle at 1-5 seats.
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In terms of vote share, the BJP has an edge over the ruling Congress in the state. As per the survey findings, the BJP is likely to garner a vote share of 46 per cent, 5 per cent ahead of the Congress with 41 per cent votes likely to be polled in its favour. In the 2018 elections, the BJP finished 27 seats behind the Congress despite the vote share difference being less than one per cent.
Notably, opinion polls findings do not always translate accurately into results and even get it wrong on may occasions. However, they do offer indications of which way the wind is blowing at the time the survey was conducted. For now, the BJP has a clear edge over Congress which is heavily invested in these elections.
With the INDIA bloc now ready to take on the BJP-led NDA, the Congress wants to repeat its Karnataka performance to prove BJP’s weakness and get an upper hand when the Opposition alliance gets on the discussion table for seat-sharing. Even otherwise, the Rajasthan elections will be a litmus test for Gehlot, the old war horse who would be viewing these elections as nothing short of a battle for existence.