MP election 2023 opinion poll prediction: The Madhya Pradesh Assembly elections scheduled to be held four months from now is set to witness an intense fight to the finish with opinion polls divided on who would win the elections slated to be held in November-December this year. Four opinion polls conducted for the MP elections so far have predicted contradictory outcomes in the polls this year.
While two have predicted a clear win for the Congress, two predict a rerun of the BJP government under CM Chouhan. According to the ABP-CVoter survey, the Congress could win 108-120 seats while the BJP is projected to finish at a marginally lower tally of 106-118. There are 230 seats in the state Assembly and the magic figure to form a government is 116.
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Another pre-poll survey conducted by IBC24 predicts that the Congress will emerge as the clear winner, bagging 119 seats and crossing the majority mark. The BJP, as per the survey, may fall short and end up at 101 seats, lower than its 2018 tally of 109. The Congress had emerged as the single-largest party with 114 seats in the elections, two short of a majority.
But it’s not all gloom and doom for the BJP in pre-poll surveys so far. As per a survey by Times Now, the BJP is predicted to register a thumping victory, winning 153 seats in the Assembly. The Congress, on the other hand, may end up with just 58 seats. The pre-poll survey by News Nation also suggests a similar outcome, with the BJP registering a staggering majority in the key Hindi-heartland state.
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The polls in Madhya Pradesh are crucial for the Congress as well as the BJP, the only two key players in the state. In the 2018 elections, the BJP lost out to power in the state after Chouhan served three terms as the Chief Minister of the state. The loss in MP was more pronounced as it came with losses in other Hindi-heartland states of Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh just months before the Lok Sabha polls.
The Congress returned to power in the state after 15 years with the support of one SP MLA, 2 BSP MLAs, and 4 Independents with Kamal Nath at the helm. Just a year later, the Kamal Nath government was pushed into a minority after a rebellion by Jyotiraditya Scindia who walked out of the government and joined the BJP with 22 party MLAs. The development marked the return of Chouhan as the Chief Minister for a fourth term.
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While Congress has set itself a target of 150 seats in the upcoming elections, the BJP is also leaving no stone unturned to ensure that 2023 does not see a repeat of 2018. The entry of the Aam Aadmi Party and other Opposition players like the BSP and the SP may also ruin the Congress’ arithmetic. A lot though may depend on how talks on a larger Opposition unity on the national level pan out in the coming days.
What looks certain for now is that the elections will see a fairly aggressive campaign from both sides and results that could go down to the wire. The biggest indicator pointing to that possibility is the vote share. While opinion polls have differed in terms of seat share, they all seem to predict a similar vote share (around 44 per cent each) for both sides.