With Prime Minister Narendra Modi having set the ruling National Democratic Alliance a target of winning more than 400 of the 543 Lok Sabha seats in the ongoing general elections, poll watchers like Prashant Kishor credit the Bharatiya Janata Party for having effectively shifted the poll narrative “from 272 to 400”. This implies that the discourse around elections, instead of focussing on who would win or lose elections, has now moved to whether the BJP will succeed in increasing its tally from the 303 seats it won in 2019.

Kishor may partially be correct. Most of the Opposition’s campaign has revolved around stoking fear about the possibility of the BJP looking to change the Constitution, a move that Modi’s opponents believe can only be brought into effect if the BJP breaches the two-thirds mark (362 seats) on its own. While the narrative around polls may have shifted, the outcomes will still depend on how the BJP performs in key states come June 4.

Five key states, comprising a total of 231 Lok Sabha seats, could decide the outcome of Lok Sabha elections. These are states where the BJP is in a contest with regional parties instead of the Congress. In the past two elections, the BJP did exceedingly well in states where it was in a direct contest with the Congress.

Uttar Pradesh: 80 seats

There has hardly been a national election when Uttar Pradesh has not proven to be an indicator of the national mood. With 80 seats up for grabs, the state sends the highest number of MPs to the Lok Sabha. In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP won 71 out of 80 seats, registering a huge jump from its previous tally of 10 seats seats in 2009. In 2019, this tally came down to 62.

A major reason behind this decline from the 2014 tally in 2019 was the coming together of the Samajwadi Party and the Bahujan Samaj Party, the two former regional behemoths in the state. While the SP and BSP contested separately in 2014, both formed an alliance in 2019 but managed to win only 15 seats. With the BSP refusing to enter into any alliance this time, the BJP would expect to repeat its tally of 2014 or increase it as it hopes to benefit from the inauguration of the Ram Mandir. Estimates so far suggest the BJP could end up in the 60-65 seats range here.

Bihar: 40 seats

All eyes will be on this key state that has perhaps seen the maximum political upheavals since the last elections. Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s love-hate relationship with the Rashtriya Janata Dal may have landed him back in the NDA camp but has also earned him the monicker of ‘Paltu Ram’ for his frequent U-turns. In the previous election, the BJP-JD(U) combine virtually swept the state, winning 39 of the 40 seats. The BJP won 17 while the JD(U) bagged 16 seats.

With the Opposition RJD turning the heat on Nitish, there is still an element of uncertainty on whether the voters have accepted the party-hopping Chief Minister. RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav, whose party failed to win a single seat in 2019, entered the elections with nothing to lose. His campaign is believed to have struck a chord with voters. June 4 will reveal whether the BJP bears the brunt of any anger against Nitish or if its larger agenda of ‘Hindutva plus Labharthis’ will allow it to sail through.

As per recent estimates, the NDA could see a fall in its tally in the range of 5-10 seats.

West Bengal: 42 seats

One state where the BJP has deployed all its might election after election is West Bengal. With 42 seats up for grabs, the BJP managed to put up its highest-ever tally of 18 seats against 22 won by Mamata Banerjee-led Trinamool Congress. Discussions around the possibility that the BJP may lose some seats in heartland states it swept in the last elections have turned the contest in West Bengal into a key battleground.

The projections so far suggest the BJP could improve its tally further regardless of its listless performance in the Assembly elections. The numbers the BJP gathers here could prove to be the determining factor in the BJP’s overall tally. The BJP hopes to cover its losses, if any, in the heartland states where it peaked in 2019, in West Bengal, and a slip-up here could prove them costly.

Estimates so far suggest gains for the BJP in West Bengal.

Odisha: 21 seats

Odisha is turning out to be another key battleground for the BJP despite the Naveen Patnaik-led Biju Janata Dal largely seen as a supporter of the BJP-led NDA at the Centre. The party has helped BJP tide over crisis situations in Rajya Sabha and has been on the same page as the Centre on many controversial issues. Not too long ago, the BJD and the BJP were on the verge of a formal alliance which eventually failed to materialise.

Yet, the 21 seats in the state have turned the BJP and BJD from potential allies to determined foes with both parties locked in a direct contest in the state. In the 2019 elections, the BJP managed to make significant inroads, winning 8 Lok Sabha seats, up from 1 seat it won in 2014. The BJD’s tally, on the other hand, slipped from 20 in 2014 to 12 in the successive general election. The BJP is hoping to increase its tally significantly in the state in order to cover any possible losses from other stronghold states.

Maharashtra: 48 seats

The state accounts for 48 Lok Sabha seats, the highest after Uttar Pradesh, automatically making it a state of electoral interest for any poll watcher. The political turbulence that the state has seen over the past five years has made Maharashtra a key battle for all stakeholders. Shiv Sena and the NCP, the two biggest regional players in the state, have witnessed splits since the 2019 elections, leaving two SHiv Senas and two NCPs in the fray this election.

Moreover, there is no clarity yet on whether the turbulence that many attribute to the BJP’s machinations would benefit the saffron party in the state. In the 2019 elections that the undivided Shiv Sena and the BJP jointly contested, the NDA bagged 41 seats (BJP-23, SS-18), maintaining its 2019 tally. A mandate against the BJP in this state could turn the election on its head and provide a huge boost to the INDIA bloc. Maharashtra is the only large state where the newly-formed INDIA bloc is jointly contesting elections.

The seven-phase elections that began on April 19 are set to conclude on June 1 with the final phase of voting. The results are scheduled to be declared on June 4.