Many parts of the country have come to experience intense heat waves. As a result, water levels in major dams are fast depleting, and power demand scaling new highs. The situation, likely to last till monsoon covers most of the country, has myriad implications for the economy and human life.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has recently predicted ‘above normal’ rains in the coming southwest monsoon season (June-September) with 90% chances of the rains being in the “normal-to-excess” range, but added the country needs to brace up for harsher summers months (April-June), preceding the period.
To be sure, the department warned of “extreme heat and prolonged heatwave spells lasting 10-22 days each, over most parts of the country” this year, instead of the usual four to eight days of such spell. “Above-normal temperatures are likely over most parts of country, especially with high probability over central India and western peninsular India,” Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, Director-General, IMD told FE.
In technical terms, the weather department declares “heatwaves” when the maximum temperature rises to more than 4.5 degrees celsius above the normal, or crosses 45 degree celsius (in the plan) and 37 degree across the coastal area.
In fact, heatwaves have already gripped many states namely Odisha, Maharashtra, Bihar, West Bengal, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Gujarat. North India is still immune to the extreme weather event, and the IMD too sees it to largely remain so this year. In many parts of the country, however, temperatures are expected to peak by mid-May.
Extreme weather events like prolonged, intense heatwaves typically pose a serious threat to not only people’s lives and heath, but has significant implications for the farm sector, and the economy at large. The heatwaves, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said in its April bulletin, pose a risk to inflation in the near-term. While core inflation has been reined in by the RBI, food inflation is relatively sticky, and have lately shown signs of inching up again.
Threat to horticulture crop
Since harvesting of the majority of rabi crops – wheat, mustard and gram– has largely been completed, the impact of the current hot climate and heatwaves is likely to be very limited on the them. While the RBI acknowledged this, Crisil has recently stated that heatwave impact has been “strongly pronounced” in the case of vegetable crops like tomatoes, green chillies, brinjal, okra etc. It stated that farmers have reportedly observed “sucking pest infestation” — thrips, aphids and whiteflies – in these crops. This can be directly attributed to prolonged high temperature in states like Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Bihar, and Odisha etc.
“With an expected impact on yield, prices for the vegetables could remain firm. Tomato prices are expected to see a further uptrend in the short term with a combined impact of heatwave and lean season for the crop, however, to be lower on a high base of last year,” Pushan Sharma, director-research, CRISIL market intelligence and analytics, told FE. In fact, experts are predicting a 0.4-0.6 percentage point increase in food inflation over the next few months due to the impact of higher vegetable prices and ongoing extreme hot weather conditions. Retail food inflation was still high at 8.52% in March, 2024.
Shailendra Singh Rao, Founder, Creduce, an agri-tech firm providing services on climate change and carbon credit, said decreased soil moisture caused by high temperature, exacerbates the issue. “Elevated temperatures encourage transpiration, thereby depriving plants of available water. This causes a demand for heightened irrigation, which further burdens water resources that are already under stress,” Rao said.
Water levels “critical”
Water levels in India’s 150 major reservoirs have fallen to only 30% of capacity, which is 18% below last year’s level due to last season’s deficient monsoon and scanty rainfall in winter months according to the Central Water Commission. It’s for the 29th week in a row the water levels have declined. Hotter climate is expected to pull down water levels of these reservoirs further. The situation is especially critical in the southern states where 42 reservoirs have only 17% capacity filled right now, and six dams in Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu have gone completely dry.
Spurt in power demand
Recently the peak demand for electricity in Mumbai shot up to over 4,000 megawatts (MW), surpassing the usual demand of around 3,500 MW for the first time this summer as temperature crossed 38 degrees. Due to hot weather conditions, the power ministry has projected peak power demand in the country could reach 260 gigawatt (GW) during the summer months, higher than the record 243 GW in September, 2023. To avoid outages that could have serious economic implications, the power ministry has asked power utilities to ensure zero load shedding during the April-June period. In addition, it told imported coal-based units to run at full capacity till September, and directed stranded gas-based units to produce power, so that whoever can afford costly power from these units can buy it, in case of shortage. “We are also ensuring that thermal power plants have enough coal supplies to last till June,” an official note of the ministry said.
Impact on ongoing elections
The government has recently constituted a task force comprising senior officials from the Election Commission of India, IMD, National Disaster Management Authority and the ministry of health and family welfare to review the impact of heatwaves and humidity, five days before each polling phase. The idea is preemptively address any “concerning developments” and take prompt mitigatory measures.
The Commission has already issued an advisory to all state chief electoral officers in this regard and standing instructions regarding the assured minimum facilities at polling stations. Officials said the health may soon issue should issue necessary instructions to the states to prepare for heatwave conditions affecting election operations, and offer extended assistance.
Meanwhile, the met department has extended its specialised transport sector forecasts beyond airports, sea ports and highways, the IMD also recently introduced forecasts for rail travellers as demand in summer peaks amid school and college holidays.
Impact on public health
During heatwaves, elevated temperatures pose significant risks, especially for vulnerable populations like the elderly, children, and those with pre-existing health conditions, who are more susceptible to heat-related illnesses such as heat exhaustion and heatstroke. According to the National Disaster Management Authority, more than 200 districts have prepared local heat action plans. Some districts have prepared and updated the action plan.