The Election Commission of India on Monday sounded the poll bugle for elections to the five state assemblies of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Telangana, Chhattisgarh and Mizoram. The elections will test the resilience and popularity of the ruling establishments at the state and the Centre while offering a glimpse into what the future may hold as the political landscape readies for the ultimate battle of 2024.
There are a number of factors that will be put to the test during elections to these five states, spreading from the Hindi heartland to South India as well as the North East. While the elections will test the Congress’ resilience in the Hindi heartland states of Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan, where it is in power, it will be equally crucial for the grand old party to wrest back control over MP, a state that slipped out of its hands 15 months after it came to power.
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For the BJP, the elections will be a litmus test for the popularity and influence of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who appears to have decided that the BJP will contest crucial state elections in Rajasthan and MP without any chief ministerial projections. Betting on Modi proved disastrous for the party in the Karnataka elections held earlier this year. A similar outcome in the Hindi heartland, where Modi draws his maximum electoral strength, could prove to be a bigger embarrassment.
The Opposition bloc, INDIA, will itself be put to the test on how the state polls, where the parties have not entered into any alliance agreements so far, fare on their own. For instance, the Congress will receive a significant shot in the arm if it manages to win back power in MP and retains Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh. This would greatly bolster its position as the prime Opposition party against the BJP and also give it considerable sway on the negotiating table when it comes to seat-distribution talks among the INDIA bloc parties.
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A good show by the Congress could also give the fragmented Opposition an opportunity to arrive at a consensus on Rahul Gandhi being projected as the leadership face of the alliance. Parties that have so far been reluctant to accept one name as the face of the alliance may be arm-twisted to do so if the results go heavily in favour of the Congress.
While elections will be held in states far away from Bihar, CM Nitish Kumar will also be keeping a close watch on the developments. Having played the caste census card at the 11th hour ahead of the announcement of polls, the results of these elections, particularly in Hindi heartland states, could help Nitish understand the undercurrent as far as the caste metrics and vote shifts are concerned.
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Ahead of the Lok Sabha battle in 2024, Nitish, who already has Congress clamouring for a nationwide caste census — apparently at his own behest — would like to project himself as a champion of the OBC cause, a move that would catapult him as the primary challenger to Narendra Modi, also an OBC leader.
The writing is already on the wall for the Opposition if the results do not go in its favour, and the BJP manages to register a strong performance in these states. Ahead of the Lok Sabha elections in 2019, the BJP had lost all three Hindi heartland states but still went on to win the general elections with a bigger majority. Perform of perish – the Opposition’s task is neatly cut out.
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