Chhattisgarh, Mizoram Assembly Elections 2023: The election season kicked off on Tuesday with voting underway on 20 seats in Chhattisgarh and all 40 seats in Mizoram. Assembly polls this year come amid a political atmosphere that is starkly different from 2019 when the BJP stormed to power at the Centre despite losing the electoral battle in three key states. The elections this year are a bigger test for the efficacy of the ‘Modi cult’ and whether the BJP’s politics of Hindutva carries the same firepower.
Much has been said of how the 2023 Assembly elections in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Telangana, Chhattisgarh and Mizoram are presumably of little consequence to the outcome of the Lok Sabha elections. The argument is premised largely on history and little on the political atmosphere prevailing in the country.
Also Read: Lok Sabha Elections 2024: The big-bang reform that Modi failed to deliver on
In the 2018 elections, the BJP lost power in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh — Hindi heartland states where the party draws its maximum strength from — but went on to win the Lok Sabha elections, improving its tally from 282 seats in 2014 to 303 in 2019. The loss in the three states did not reflect in the BJP’s Lok Sabha tally either as it bagged nine of 11 seats in Chhattisgarh, 28 of 29 seats in MP and 24 of 25 seats in Rajasthan.
The argument put forth is that since the 2018 Assembly election results in states did not bear any consequence on the outcome of the general elections, the outcome of the 2023 state elections would be inconsequential to the 2024 results. The assertion, though plausible, appears a little far-fetched in the prevailing scenario.
Also Read: Mizoram Election 2023: Can ruling MNF ward off ZPM, Congress challenge? Voting tomorrow
The Lok Sabha elections in 2019 was beyond doubt a cakewalk for the BJP. However, the scenario then was starkly different from what it is now. The Opposition was in a shambles and there was a palpable absence of an alternative agenda in their discourse to challenge the BJP or Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s popularity. That, however, does not seem to be the case now.
The Opposition today is far more structured and together. The 26-party INDIA bloc may have had its teething problems, but the outcome of the elections in the three key Hindi heartland states could change all that. The Congress, which is banking on its return to power in Chhattisgarh and Mizoram, where polls are underway, is hopeful of breaking the tradition of Rajasthan electing alternate governments for the past three decades, avenging the fall of its elected government in Madhya Pradesh and carry the momentum through Telangana to mark a resurgence.
Unlike 2019, when the BJP managed to run home with a splendid victory despite the losses in states, the 2024 polls have the punch missing for the BJP. The BJP had managed to effectively form a narrative of nationalism around the Balakot air strikes in the aftermath of the terror attack in Pulwama that led to the death of 40 CRPF jawans. The attacks carried out in February 2019, came just ahead of the Lok Sabha elections and led to a wave of support for Modi and the BJP and led to a landslide win for the ruling party.
A solid performance by the Congress in elections in these five states may pit ‘INDIA’ constituents against the grand old party when it comes to seat-sharing. But the boost that victories in direct contests with the BJP will have on the rank and file of the entire Opposition that will be the bigger takeaway.
Also Read: Elections in 2023: 11 electoral contests that will set the tone for 2024
For the BJP, the stakes are much higher. The Opposition comes without any baggage, has nothing to lose, giving it a psychological advantage. For the BJP though, the test is whether the strategy of banking on Modi has run its time. Karnataka was an example of how sidelining BS Yediyurappa turned out to be a nightmare for the BJP. And the partry appears to be heading down a similar path in MP, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan as well.
While the outcome may be different from Karnataka, the onus of performance, at least in public perception, falls on Modi’s shoulders. With its promise of the caste census, the Congress has already threatened to take the wind off Modi’s sails (OBCs form a significant chunk of Modi’s core support base). Should the BJP falter in the heartland states, the impact could be much bigger in the Lok Sabha election where it does not have a blazing gun like the Balakot counterstrike with its back against the wall. Not yet.