The weight-loss drug market is showing signs of growth moderation after an explosive year of expansion with the latest report from Pharmarack highlighting that the GLP-1 drugs market expanded by 8% month-on-month in May, compared with a 21% jump recorded in April. 

The healthcare research firm noted that semaglutide’s rapid expansion, fuelled by lower-priced generic versions which were launched in late March, appears to be stabilising after an initial phase of aggressive patient onboarding.

“Tirzepatide seems to have moved back to the pre-generics launch levels in May 26. Semaglutide injectables monthly momentum seems to have slowed down. Due to economical pricing, the unit consumption on Semaglutide has moved up significantly, but the tempo has slowed down,” the report said.

Currently, the GLP-1 market is primarily driven by Eli Lilly’s tirzepatide and semaglutide-based products. Last month, Tirzepatide alone accounted for Rs 1,207 crore in sales, accounting for 63% of the overall market, while semaglutide — the key ingredient for brands like Wegovy and Ozempic — contributed Rs 589 crore, or 31% of the market. Together, these two molecules continue to strengthen their position in the market even as older therapies such as dulaglutide and liraglutide are losing relevance.

According to Pharmarack, the Indian GLP-1 agonist market soared to Rs 1,906 crore on a moving annual total (MAT) basis, nearly quadrupling from Rs 565 crore a year ago.

The report stated that out of the 35 brands of Semaglutide that are available in the market from 17 companies, including from the originator Novo Nordisk, seven brands have shown upward trend in May over the previous month. “Since the market growth has slowed down, there are brands that have shown a negative traction over April 26. There are chances of inventory build up, especially in the Semaglutide generics that may start getting visible,” as per report.

Despite a flurry of launches of the generic versions of Semaglutide since its patent expiry in late March, Pharmarack noted that there’s a positive trend in innovator segment which indicates sustained physician, especially super-specialities, confidence in evidence-based brands.

The sustained momentum for innovator drugs also helped Mounjaro (Eli Lilly’s flagship brand) retain its position as the top-selling pharma product in India, generating monthly sales of Rs 109 crore with its moving annual turnover (MAT) reaching Rs 1,095 crore.

Even though the growth moderation indicate that a substantial proportion of eligible patients may already have entered therapy, the report said that the future growth for economical GLP-1 drugs will depend on the strategy of the pharma companies, dropouts, eligible patient onboarding and government advistories.