All finance ministers of India since 1991 have received a thumbs-up from the stock market on their first day in the office. This is, of course, in part a reflection of the fact that post-reforms, generally good-quality people have been appointed to the top economic administration job.
May 25 was no exception when the market opened for the first time after Pranab Mukherjee was appointed to North Block over the weekend. The benchmark 30-share BSE Sensex gained 26 points to close at 13913, a 0.19% increase from Friday?s close. Still, the gain was far less than the 3.8% rise on January 27 this year when he took over as the interim finance minister. Perhaps the more lukewarm response on May 25 was a tempered reaction to the earlier euphoria over UPA?s comfortable election win, confirming the general trend that markets react more strongly to governments as a whole than to individuals.
Going back in time, the market gave a strong thumbs-up to P Chidambaram on May 24, 2004 when he took office. The Sensex moved 3.3% and the rally continued for a few days till it became range bound. The market reacted positively as he had been fully supportive of economic reforms. The market started moving up after three months, and the bull run continued till the global financial meltdown.
But P Chidambaram wasn?t that lucky when he took over as the finance minister in the United Front government. On May 16, 1996 when he assumed office, the Sensex just gained 0.7% and slipped down subsequently.
Yashwant Sinha?s (0.5% on March 20, 1998) and Jaswant Singh?s (1.35% on June 30, 2002) first day in North Block could not move up the Sensex much. But after four months of Yashwant Sniha taking office in 1998, the market started moving up because of strong reforms signals like disinvestment from the BJP-led NDA government.
But most notably, in 1991 when trading at the BSE was insignificant compared to today, the market still cheered Dr Manmohan Singh, the day he took office as the finance minister. It moved 2% and old timers at Dalal Street say it was the market?s salute to him because of his good stints at RBI and the Planning Commission.
?saikat.neogi@expressindia.com