The U.S. population continues to age as birth rates fall, according to newly released Vintage 2024 Population Estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau. The shift, driven by the growing share of baby boomers and a decline in births, is fueling concerns about future economic stability and shifting societal norms.
Older adults growing faster than children
Between 2023 and 2024, the population aged 65 and older rose by 3.1%, reaching 61.2 million people. In contrast, the population under 18 declined by 0.2%, dropping to 73.1 million. Although children still outnumber older adults nationally, the gap is shrinking rapidly. According to Census Bureau data, the share of older adults has climbed from 12.4% of the U.S. population in 2004 to 18% in 2024. Meanwhile, the percentage of children has dropped from 25% to 21.5% over the same period.
This trend is largely driven by increased longevity and fewer births. In many states, outmigration is also contributing to the rise in the share of baby boomers. The Congressional Budget Office projects the U.S. fertility rate to average just 1.6 births per woman over the next 30 years, well below the replacement level of 2.1 required to maintain a stable population without immigration.
Government response and political focus
The declining birth rate has become a growing political issue. President Donald Trump, seeking a second term, has made boosting the U.S. birth rate a top priority. His administration introduced a “baby bonus” of $5,000 per child to encourage childbirth and signed an executive order to expand access to in vitro fertilization (IVF). The Department of Transportation has been directed to prioritize funding for communities with marriage and birth rates above the national average.
Meanwhile, Congress is considering legislation to make maternity care an essential benefit under the Affordable Care Act and expand support for prenatal, postpartum, and early childhood care. Despite the narrowing gap between children and older adults, children still hold a demographic edge, at least for now. The long-term implications of this shift will touch nearly every aspect of American life, from labour markets and healthcare to education and immigration policy.