The upcoming US Election 2024, with Republican Donald Trump challenging Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris, is set to influence global geopolitics in a profound way. For India, the election holds significant weight, with key considerations regarding the country’s relations with the US in defence, trade, and diplomacy. Beyond the bilateral relationship, how the next American president manages international tensions involving Russia, Ukraine, Israel, Iran, and China will directly impact India’s strategic positioning.
India’s Choices: Navigating Trump and Harris
India has historically maintained robust ties with both Republican and Democratic administrations, but each leader’s policy framework could shape India’s diplomatic approach in distinct ways. Narendra Modi, who cultivated strong ties with Trump during his presidency, has more recently strengthened bilateral relations under President Joe Biden. However, the contrasting strategies of Trump and Harris, particularly toward global conflicts and international trade, could leave India recalibrating its strategies.
Donald Trump: Economic Nationalism and Defence Cooperation
Trump’s previous term showcased a complex, yet dynamic relationship with India. His emphasis on “America First” policies often clashed with India’s trade interests, but a convergence on security, especially concerning China, fostered deeper defence collaboration. As he seeks to return to office, Trump has signaled a more confrontational approach on trade, recently calling India an “abuser” of tariffs in a 2024 campaign rally. While he tempered his rhetoric with praise for Prime Minister Modi, his remarks hint at potential friction in economic relations. Should Trump win, India could face more challenges on trade negotiations, particularly if the US demands “reciprocal” tariffs and further protectionist measures.
At the same time, Trump’s clear anti-China posture aligns with India’s own concerns in the region. Trump’s commitment to curbing Chinese influence could reinforce India’s position as a key player in Indo-Pacific security and a strategic counterweight to Beijing. His re-election could see greater defence and technology cooperation, building on past agreements in areas like military hardware and intelligence sharing.
Kamala Harris: Diplomacy, Human Rights, and Stability
Kamala Harris, on the other hand, presents a more diplomatic and perhaps cautious approach to US foreign policy. As the first woman of Indian descent to run for the presidency, her candidacy offers symbolic value, but her positions on India may differ significantly from her predecessors. Harris has previously been vocal on issues concerning human rights in India, notably around Jammu and Kashmir following the revocation of Article 370. A Harris administration might bring more focus on democratic values and human rights in foreign policy, potentially leading to tensions if the US pushes India on internal matters.
However, Harris would likely build on the Biden administration’s legacy, particularly in the defence realm. India has seen unprecedented cooperation with the US through forums like the Quad, and Harris is expected to continue strengthening these alliances. Economically, Harris may also take a less aggressive stance than Trump, favouring negotiations that maintain trade relationships rather than disrupting them with tariffs. For India, this could mean a more stable economic environment but also more diplomatic scrutiny on issues like press freedom and minority rights.
Russia and Ukraine: India’s Balancing Act
One of the most pressing issues for the next US president will be the Russia-Ukraine war. India has walked a careful tightrope, maintaining its strategic partnership with Russia while avoiding taking sides in the conflict. Trump’s campaign rhetoric suggests a swift resolution to the conflict through negotiations with Russia, which could potentially ease tensions for India. If the US reduces pressure on Russia, India could maintain its defence and energy ties with Moscow without facing the same level of Western scrutiny.
In contrast, Harris is expected to stay the course with the current administration’s strong support for Ukraine. This could further complicate India’s balancing act, as pressure may mount for it to take a clearer stance. Sanctions on Russia could tighten, making it more difficult for India to procure defence equipment and oil from Moscow. A Harris presidency could challenge India’s non-aligned stance, creating diplomatic hurdles.
China: A Common Adversary
Regardless of the election outcome, US policy on China is unlikely to see a dramatic shift. Both Trump and Harris have positioned China as a strategic competitor. For India, this offers continuity in an area of shared concern. The growing assertiveness of China in the Indo-Pacific and along India’s borders makes strong US-India cooperation essential.
Trump’s hardline approach to China, including tariffs and sanctions, could benefit India by making it a more attractive destination for businesses seeking alternatives to Chinese manufacturing. Harris, though likely less confrontational, would continue policies that support India’s role in the Quad and other multilateral frameworks aimed at countering China’s influence.
Israel, Iran, and the Middle East: New Alignments?
The Middle East remains another critical area where the US election could affect India’s foreign policy. Trump’s strong backing of Israel, exemplified by his facilitation of the Abraham Accords, aligns with India’s growing defence and trade ties with Israel. However, Trump’s aggressive stance on Iran could create difficulties for India, which relies on Iranian energy supplies and values its strategic access through the Chabahar Port.
If Trump were to reimpose strict sanctions on Iran, India could face challenges in maintaining its relationship with Tehran. Conversely, Harris would likely seek a return to diplomacy with Iran, potentially reviving the nuclear deal and easing tensions in the region. This could allow India to resume oil imports from Iran without the threat of US sanctions and strengthen its strategic foothold in the region.
Preparing for an Uncertain Future
The outcome of the 2024 US presidential election will have far-reaching consequences for India’s foreign policy and strategic interests. A Trump presidency could bring challenges on the economic front while reinforcing defence ties, especially in countering China. Harris, while more diplomatically aligned with the current administration, could present new pressures related to human rights and democratic values, potentially complicating India’s internal and external balancing.
In a world of shifting alliances and growing geopolitical uncertainty, India’s ability to navigate its relationship with the next US administration—be it Trump or Harris—will be critical to maintaining its strategic autonomy and safeguarding its national interests.