-By Rajesh Mehta & Shanayaa S. Suneja

“It is an unfortunate fact that we can secure peace only by preparing for war.”- John F. Kennedy

In the wake of the war being waged by Russia, countries worldwide have all of a sudden faced the need to take a step back and re-evaluate their internal and external affairs as well as defence strategies. As reality continues to shift farther and farther away from a free world, here are the lessons India needs to take home-

Military Self-Reliance

India is surrounded by nuclear giants- China and Pakistan. The harsh truth is that these countries continue to carry forward a historic precedence of antagonism directed at us till the present day. Even though India enjoys a much stronger economic disposition than Pakistan, China is an altogether different and unconquerable game. In such a scenario, the biggest takeaway from the ongoing war is to not depend on any third country to militarily support us. In such a scenario, India needs to actively invest in strengthening its defence and broadening its military-strategic depth to counter any future attacks from our neighbours. We are sadly the world’s second largest importer of defence technology, with 60% of our military hardware being from Russia. We also need spare parts, as part of our own production process, from other sanctioned entities. Amidst an expected cold war and CAATSA, there is an overwhelming need to be independent with respect to all stages of our production plans of artillery. We must restructure the ‘Make in India’ movement’s focal point to also incorporate defence and indigenous equipment. Redirecting our military imports to technologically advanced countries like France can be done to some extent. However, our prime focus needs to be on ensuring that our wars of tomorrow can be fought with Indian equipment.

The current conflict has also brought to spotlight the absolute ineffectiveness of the United Nations and Security Council. The post-war era is expected to have reformed organisations with greater capacities and capabilities to protect the world-order. India needs to actively participate in the formation and reformation of these establishments, so as to acquire a key role in all future discussions and negotiations.

Trade Relations

As policy makers continue to discuss Aatmanirbharta as the way forward, it is imperative to emphasise that isolation is not the solution. As opposed to regressing back to a protectionist economy, our agenda should be encouraging globalisation, expansion of trade and boosting FTAs. The post-war future holds reformed alliances worldwide. These FTAs with the USA, Canada and EU, which have been getting side-lined and debated for decades need to be urgently expedited so as to unlock the full potential of bilateral trade. Ensuring that the trade agreements are set up in good faith to expand trade across all sectors and strengthen our global alliances is important. India has the lowest average share of integrational flows among its Asian counterparts; thereby throwing light on the need to invest in developing better relationships with our immediate neighbours. In fact, South-Asian integration is the future, with Asia’s fraction of global goods trade rising from 25 percent in 2000–02 to 33 percent in 2015–17. India needs to jump on this bandwagon of Asian Unification to strengthen its future economic aspects and milk the most of young labour forces and fresh market opportunities.

Supply Chains

The ongoing pandemic and the current war have brought to light the vulnerability of global supply chains and just how susceptible to fluctuations they are. Even as the war proceeds, the world expects a new round of delays and protracted supply shortages. The automotive industry, in particular, faced renewed operational problems because of the war, and the semiconductor shortage continues to drag on. BMW and VW’s production got interrupted at European sites due to disruptions in the supply of components like wire harnesses from Ukraine. This affects both the production of conventional cars and electric vehicles, with a significant hike in lead times. Ukraine and Russia are also large exporters of wheat, corn, sunflower oil, steel, palladium, platinum, and nickel. As companies from the west flee and look elsewhere for their production needs, India needs to capitalise this opportunity. After all, this is our chance to emerge as a global exporter and embed ourself as an important part of Global Value Chains. 

Education

The crisis also exposed ground realities of the state of the Indian education system. The 20,000 MBBS students stuck in Ukraine forced policymakers to turn their attention to the plight of the youth who face a dearth of affordable opportunities within the nation. There needs to be policy focus on creation of ample facilities to allow students to pursue their higher studies in India itself and stop the brain-drain. Reformation of the education system to accommodate the needs of people from all socio-economic backgrounds is the need of the hour. It is only possible for our universities to become a match for international counterparts, if and only if the Government encourages public and private investment in Research and Development at academic institutions. To improve the Indian R&D sector, proper infrastructure in the likes of laboratory facilities need to be set up.

Technology is the Future

The current geopolitical tussle has brought to spotlight the power of the internet and technological innovation. Satellite Imaging and installation of CCTV cameras proved to be a useful tool for self-defence. Investment in 3D drones, Video and Image Retrieval and Analysis Tools is necessary to scan for threats and ward off impending attacks. GPS Guided weapons, battle networks, collateral damage estimation methodology and development of apps for greater information exchange among civilians and hospitals should also be considered. India seriously lags behind in innovation, henceforth giving rise to the need for imports. Innovation needs to be persuaded both from an academic and production perspective, so as to bring us at par with global standards. Economic incentives need to be provided for investments in research and development. The world saw a serious turbulence to the former global financial order, as Russian banks were evicted from SWIFT payment system and will now proceed with Chinese Union-Pay. Policy makers expect the coming world to take the shape of a non-dollar system, to separate banks, fintech and credit from the rest of the dollar-abiding world. In such a scenario, it is important for India to innovate and adapt, so as to be prepared for what’s to come.

(The authors – Rajesh Mehta is a leading consultant & columnist working on Market Entry, Innovation & Public Policy. Shanayaa Suneja is a researcher. Views are personal and not necessarily that of FinancialExpress.com)