By BVR Subbu
If the start of commercial production at Ola’s mega-factory in 2021 rewrote the record books for product development and manufacturing execution, and became the first defining moment in India’s electric two-wheeler (E2W) revolution, Royal Enfield’s launch of its EV motorcycle in Milan earlier this month might well be considered the second. Both underlined the ability of India’s E2W industry to stand tall among its global peers.
Reflecting this stature, the E2W industry’s growth performance remains robust. Sales numbers are up 32% in the three quarters of CY24, and every quarter among the last 12 — with two exceptions, Q2 in CY23 and Q3 in CY24 — have been roughly on a par with or well ahead of the previous quarter.
In keeping with the Diwali spirit, monthly sales numbers for October were quite a cracker too, vaulting 89% on a year-on-year basis – from 75,164 to 139,031 units — and EV penetration for all 2Ws has crossed 6.5%. This, despite the fact that most of the volume growth came from scooters, with motorcycles yet to truly join the party. Ola, at almost 42,000 units, continued on top of the totem pole, with TVS and Bajaj remaining strong performers at the next two positions. The semblance of consolidation in the industry is also expected to become more pronounced as the early starters continue their slide to irrelevance.
The necessary conditions for a virtuous cycle of exponential growth are clearly in place. Industry efforts at localisation and the consequent reconfiguring of product offerings, combined with the Faster Adoption and Manufacturing of Hybrid and Electric Vehicles and production-linked incentive benefits, have created a wider range of price points. The E2W revolution is now within the grasp of a wider, more price-sensitive consumer segment. The committed entry of the legacy players has given EV technology a stamp of acceptance with a wider range of consumers. And, led by the market reach of the legacy players, mainstream EV technology products are now becoming visible all over the rural hinterland too. With the introduction of mass market motorcycles, the last quarter of CY25 could well witness annualised volumes crossing 5 million. An organised retrofit industry could then provide the perfect inflexion point, and rural India’s entire 2W market — powered by free farm electricity — could then become the battering ram that pushes change.
But challenges remain. The first undoubtedly arises from the charging infrastructure. Despite all the work done, it leaves a lot to be desired, both in quantitative and qualitative terms. Let me focus on the qualitative aspect.
Anything that relies on an external source of electricity faces a risk from voltage transients and surges. Transients are of a very short duration with higher peak amplitude, and are considered more likely the result of nearby lightning strikes and step changes in grid loading. Surges are generally of a longer duration, with lower peak voltage and/or current amplitude and likely the result of the same phenomena occurring much farther away. Both phenomena, particularly the latter—because of step changes in grid loading—are fairly common occurrences in India. However “clean” the grid is, such hazards will occur, but how often and with what severity defies modelling.
High-voltage transients could create “pin-hole” failures in insulation in integrated circuits that incrementally increase the chance of total failure later on. High-energy transients can cause major insulation failure and sometimes even arcing, both of which could lead to a fire. Surges generally cause equipment failure more from excessive heating and malfunctioning components like mosfets, and consequential system failure — anywhere, from headlamps to electronic motor controllers. Transients are also known to potentially cause significant software malfunctions ranging from system lock-up, memory corruption to even erroneous device resets. And all this can happen irrespective of the best quality processes at the component manufacturing level, at the software testing level, or in the vehicle assembly process.
The internationally accepted regulations for surge and transient immunity, IEC 61000-4-5, are a part of those mandated for charging infrastructure in India. Compliance ought to, theoretically, ensure durability and reliability. Yet, a large number of outlets across India are often out of service. How often are they checked for conformance, by who, and how is the information made available to consumers are some obvious questions. Could E2W consumers using charging infrastructure, whether regularly or sporadically, potentially end up taking risks they never bargained for? And those could be anything: lights malfunctioning, vehicles refusing to start, losing power suddenly, or worse, stopping in the middle of the road.
Recently, auto journalist/blogger Veeresh Malik wrote to me: “On a recent trip to Mysuru…., we had a small misadventure thanks to some defect with/at a …. fast charging station. The EV went into vehicle protection mode, limited performance, maximum 50 kmph etc, showing airbag errors…”
Even one of these possibilities can cause unacceptable levels of consumer disaffection and disrepute to vehicle manufacturers. Original equipment manufacturers will have to try correlate the observed failure patterns on consumers’ vehicles with their charging habits/preferences and locations. And till a clear picture emerges on the “clean” power availability at charging points, perhaps they ought to recommend home charging to their consumers. Closer proximity experiences could worsen transient/surge conditions because the higher power handling that typically goes along with closer proximity to the grid appears to afford more immunity to transients and surges.
As the government contemplates new incentives for charging infrastructure players, it has to examine this. Perhaps infra players could be mandated to design hybrid installations that isolate installations using in-line storage systems. Perhaps the government and the EV industry could establish an independent real-time physical quality assurance capability to check installations at random and provide a health certificate? At the risk of sounding alarmist, it is technically possible to infect charging installations with malware that could then find its way to all user vehicles or, worse, crash the nation’s power grid. The potential to push targeted malware, through dedicated or independent charging networks, is as real as it is diabolical.
The writer is an auto industry veteran and member of the Board of KPIT Technologies.
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