By Vineet Mittal

It is becoming evident that with increased carbon emissions, humankind is moving towards an existential crisis. Extreme weather events have become common, and indiscriminate use of fossil fuel for power generation, mobility, and industrial purposes is contributing to rising emissions. Thus, the call for a faster transition to clean energy is getting stronger. Renewable energy (RE) has crossed a big milestone with global capacity addition exceeding fossil fuel. Around 3,400 gigawatt (Gw) capacities have been installed, comprising 30% of total power generation.

India’s economy requires massive energy to sustain its growth. India is projected to have the fastest-growing energy demand globally by 2035, contributing 30% to the total increase. The recent surge, exceeding 4.2% per year, will most likely result in India surpassing China as the largest energy market by 2030.

Despite having one of the biggest coal reserves, India is consciously powering its growth using green and clean energy sources. At the Conference of the Parties (COP) 26, Prime Minister Narendra Modi committed that the nation’s installed RE capacity will reach 500 Gw by 2030. The target is ambitious but achievable. But, considering the energy growth in India’s incremental demand in the electrification of mobility, we might have to double the installed RE capacity to 1 terawatt (Tw) by 2035.

India’s journey towards clean energy has gained momentum in the past 10 years and positioned it as a global leader. As of May, it has an impressive installed capacity of around 191 Gw, led by 85 Gw of solar power. The remarkable growth is largely driven by government initiatives promoting clean energy. The National Solar Mission, launched in 2010, has been a cornerstone that has helped set targets and incentivise large-scale projects.

The journey towards 1 Tw will be challenging. There are prerequisites to achieving this.

Availability of land: Land acquisition is a complex time-consuming process. The key challenges are outdated ownership records, price discovery mechanisms, mutation, and end-use changes. Making sure land is available to add almost 800 Gw over the next 10 years will require massive collaboration between the central and state governments. Large tracts available with states can be considered for RE projects at fair market prices or on lease. According to the Wasteland Atlas of India, 17% of India’s landmass has been identified as wasteland. After properly assessing these, such land parcels can be considered for RE projects.

Power evacuation infrastructure: Augmentation of transmission infrastructure has not kept pace with RE capacity addition. It’s quite concerning that Rajasthan, which has one of the highest radiation intensities in India, does not have enough existing and upcoming connectivity for new projects till 2028.

The Central Transmission Utility has decided to use high-voltage direct current (HVDC) technology for new transmission due to inherent advantages such as lower line losses and cost advantage over larger distances. But there is a delay in line commissioning due to non-availability of substation equipment. This stems from the fact that there are only three-four manufacturers outside China for HVDC equipment, and most of them are overbooked due to orders in Europe and the US.

While the Indian government’s concerns are valid, practical realities demand alternatives which could include opening the window for short- to medium-sized imports to meet shortages with additional safeguards for network security. Deeper engagement with non-Chinese suppliers will also be required to meet medium- to long-term demand.

Lastly, public sector undertakings like Bharat Heavy Electricals Limited can be encouraged to invest in manufacturing HVDC equipment on their own by forming joint ventures.

Policy consistency: In the last few years, there has been abrupt policy decisions such as imposing safeguard duty and basic customs duty, and increasing goods and services tax rates. Also, some governments have been more punitive, as they unilaterally cancelled contracts that were only restored after courts intervened. We need a consistent policy at the central and state levels, and a legal and regulatory framework should remain unchanged for at least 5-10 years.

Grid integration and storage solutions: Grid integration is increasingly becoming a massive problem. While manageable at lower levels, it’s becoming difficult with the increase in absorption of more renewables. System operators and regulators are urging RE generators to forecast their generation to minimise demand-supply imbalances, leading to an increase in penalties. But it’s not fully solving the issue. Solar energy is only available during the day. Thus, increasing RE consumption requires developing storage facilities such as pumped hydro and battery energy storage solutions (BESS). The Central Electricity Authority has forecast a need for 48 Gw/236 Gwh of BESS and 62 Gw of pumped hydro by 2030.

Financing: To have an installed RE capacity of 1 Tw, India needs an investment of $350-400 billion over the next 10 years. It implies a large base of lenders and equity investors. However, there is an urgent need for diversifying sources of capital providers and focusing on relatively cheaper sources. In this regard, relaxing investment norms for insurance firms can be transformational. Similarly, strengthening the market for green bonds will play a significant role.

Focus on distributed generation: According to the Council on Energy, Environment and Water, India has a rooftop potential of 600+ Gw, of which less than 15 Gw has been exploited. There is also a large potential for smaller decentralised projects in rural areas to feed directly into 33/11 kilovolt (kV) substations and be located near load centres.

The Pradhan Mantri Kisan Urja Suraksha evam Utthaan Mahabhiyan is seeing traction, especially after Maharashtra designed and implemented a massive capacity addition for solar plants under the scheme. The aggregate capacity planned to be added in over 1,000 rural locations in Maharashtra is around 20 Gw, which will directly feed into 33/11 kV substations.

Impetus on domestic manufacturing: India largely depends on imports for capital equipment and RE. Due to geopolitical developments, India must aggressively pursue manufacturing. While the Centre has done its bit by introducing production-linked incentive schemes, tariff and non-tariff barriers, more effort is needed to create basic infrastructure such as access roads and power.

The government has committed to lowering India’s projected carbon emissions by 1 billion tonnes by 2030 and reaching net zero by 2070. This can turn into reality with the alliance of the government, the private sector, and the citizens. “The future depends on what we do in the present,” said Mahatma Gandhi. This holds true for India’s RE ambitions.

(The author is the Chairman of Avaada Group. Views expressed are personal opinions.)