Rupee declines 3.61% against dollar in FY22, expected to appreciate in current fiscal, resistance at 75.03

The Indian rupee rose 14 paise to 75.76 against the US dollar in previous session, tracking strong Asian rivals and a drop in global crude oil prices. The domestic unit, on the other hand, depreciated by 264 paise, or 3.61%, against the American currency during the fiscal year 2021-22. The dollar index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of six currencies, increased 0.40% to 98.18. Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, fell drastically to USD 107.11 per barrel, a drop of 5.59%. “Despite a positive outcome from Tuesday’s peace negotiations, the USD/INR pair has seen a decent buying interest near 75.54, as hopes for a truce between Russia and Ukraine receded,” Kshitij Purohit, Lead Commodity & Currency at CapitalVia Global Research.

Kshitij Purohit, Lead Commodity & Currency at CapitalVia Global Research

“Technically, USD/INR April has formed major support in 75.88-75.86 zone on intraday charts, if this zone gets breached with ample volumes on closing basis, we may witness prices testing next immediate support in 75.72-75.70 zone. While on the upside 75.03-75.06 may act as immediate resistance zone as we have seen multiple rejections from this area and this also a CPR zone. While on daily charts, prices have not yet closed below the CPR zone and this may act as major support if any signs of reversal are seen. Closing below 75.80 on daily charts may open even lower levels of 75.50-75.48 which is the next major zone, technically as well as psychologically,” Purohit added.

Rahul Kalantri, VP Commodities, Mehta Equities

“The rupee is expected to appreciate in the coming financial year amid improvement in the global markets and persistent FII inflows. Further, we expect the crude oil price will cool down which will also support the rupee to get stronger. Aggressive monetary tightening by the Fed will lead to weakness in the dollar and softening crude oil prices may prevent further downside in rupee against dollar. We are very bullish on Rupee against Dollar for this financial year. We are expecting the rupee to come down to 73.50 against the dollar.”

Anindya Banerjee, VP, Currency Derivatives & Interest Rate Derivatives at Kotak Securities

“If now new shocks emerge over the weekend, then next week, we expect USDINR to drift downward, towards 75.30/35 levels on the spot and 75.55 on April futures. One can use a mix of futures and covered put options to initiate trade. Positional stop should be above 76 on a spot closing basis.