A mad scientist creates something for the greater good, but that ultimately starts having a different interpretation of the world. So much so that this invention turns against the world looking for annihilation or enslavement of humans. This has been the theme of most sci-fi movies. If humans are not dying of death, disease or global catastrophes, they are either being enslaved by robots or are being killed by them. Now matter how absurd the idea may seem, not only sci-fi authors, even futurists are now believing in his reality. Although no futurist has talked of a zombie attack — Artificial intelligence taking over humans is very much a concern. Amy Webb is one such futurist, warning the world against an imminent threat to humanity. Not from some mad scientist, but from big bad corporations, or worse, countries trying to establish global dominance. Unlike sci-fi authors, Webb details all scenarios of how the next two or three decades may pan out.
The professor of strategic foresight at NYU Stern Business School, in her latest book The Big Nine: How the tech titans & their thinking machines could warp humanity, details the journey and evolution of artificial intelligence with reference to three scenarios — optimistic, pragmatic and catastrophic. She believes that the fate of humanity lies in the hands of nine internet companies and two countries.
While the big nine have the responsibility to either play along or strive for profits, one of the two countries — China — Webb believes, is the worst-case scenario for artificial intelligence and humanity. Although only the catastrophic case, where China takes over the world, talks about a global endemic, the pragmatic one points to small disruptions in the lives of humans. What Webb, also a founder of Future Today Institute (a research group working on the same lines), is wary of is the build-up to artificial super-intelligence.
Although indeed, humans are already transfixed by technology, Webb believes that artificial super-intelligence would be a step further, making us entirely dependent on machines. And, corporations may leverage that to keep us in check against the backdrop of the government’s increased surveillance. Webb does provide solutions to avoid these catastrophes but thankfully does not turn into a complete Luddite. She does not wish to stop the march of technology but does want governments to control it. The blame, she believes, lies with the US government that has allowed profit-driven firms to run amok.
Webb does present an intriguing account of the world 50 years from now, and thankfully does not stay restricted to one notion. She takes the effort to offer all points of view, but in doing so ignores a lot of realities. There is no insight into the working of any of the nine firms, but a bird’s-eye view of how the future will play out.
Being a professor of strategic foresight, she does grasp the geo-political phenomenon, which is a limitation of many others (the geo-political phenomenon is a limitation of what others). But, even in these, the point of view remains structured towards one side. The same internet that we have blamed for making us dumb has also been a platform for movements like Time’s Up. Although strongmen have used the internet for their benefit to win elections, students have used it to stand up against the very authorities. Thus, Webb underestimates the power of technology and the revolution it can bring about. China may have been able to introduce social credit scores; it has been unsuccessful as far as curbing Hong Kong movements are concerned.
Similarly, profit-making enterprises have been forced to give up some autonomy by the governments and the people to retain their profits. We may share our data with the G-Mafia, but we are not letting them guide our decisions, at least for now. Plus, where the author does falter is the state of artificial super-intelligence. If any company or economy were to build such, it is highly unlikely that it would be able to control the innovation. After all, if anything sci-fi has taught us, is that Vision and Ultron do fall out of the remit of Mr Stark’s orders.
(The writer is a former journalist)
