The upcoming West Bengal Panchayat election in 2023 will be crucial for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in more ways than one. Elections to rural local bodies in the politically crucial state are being seen as a test for the saffron party’s popularity in the state ahead of the Lok Sabha elections in 2024 where party strategist Amit Shah eyes maximum dividend. The challenge becomes even more precarious for the BJP which emerged as the state’s main opposition party during the 2021 Assembly polls but soon began to witness a slow but worrying downfall in recently held elections. 

The leaders from the three main political parties — Trinamool Congress (TMC), BJP, and Left front — have expressed confidence that they would sweep the panchayat election. But the real ‘khela’, by all means, will be between TMC and BJP.

The exact schedule of the rural polls remains unclear for now but there is a possibility that the three-tier panchayat elections will be conducted after February.

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In his recent visit to Kolkata on Friday, Shah held a meeting with the party’s top brass. Bengal BJP’s important faces like national vice president Dilip Ghosh, state president Sukanta Majumdar, Leader of the Opposition Suvendu Adhikari, and MP Locket Chatterjee and others were present.

In the meeting, Shah reviewed the party’s preparations for the 2023 rural polls in the state. The BJP leader directed the leaders to focus on strengthening the grassroot level of the party and to reach out to as many people as possible.  

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Earlier, this month, while addressing a rally at Purba Medinipur’s Nandigram constituency, Adhikari claimed that the saffron party would sweep the three-tier Panchayat polls. He further added that BJP would win as many as 12 of the 17 panchayat bodies in his area (Nandigram). However, turning the BJP’s claim into reality is easier said than done.

Infighting within party

Post-assembly elections in the state, BJP has seen an exodus of prominent leaders from its fold. Mukul Roy, Babul Supriyo, Arjun Singh have left the saffron party to join Mamata Banerjee’s TMC, resulting in constant attacks from the ruling party and an obvious loss of face over apparent infighting and organisational failures of BJP’s Bengal unit. Political observers have claimed that infighting within the saffron party could severely dent the BJP’s ground support, something that the party prides itself on despite the electoral loss in the assembly elections.

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Political violence

Ahead of the rural polls, the recoveries of arms, bombs, shootouts etc have become a regular affair in the state. In the 2018 rural polls, TMC won 34 per cent seats uncontested as the candidates from opposition parties failed to file nominations. BJP has asked the West Bengal State Election Commission to deploy central forces in a bid to prevent violence.

The Abhishek Banerjee factor

The lack of credible young face in the BJP has proved to be a hindrance to the party’s revival after the defeat in 2021 assembly polls. The BJP unit in the state is not only facing Mamata Banerjee but also his nephew Abhishek Banerjee who is gradually emerging as the TMC’s main face along with the popular West Bengal CM.

 Vote share

In the 2021 assembly polls, the BJP won 77 assembly constituencies and had a vote share of 38.1 per cent. However, in recent elections such as Kolkata Municipal Corporation (KMC) and urban civic bodies polls and other by elections, the vote share of BJP has tumbled drastically. In the KMC polls alone, BJP’s vote share fell to 29 per cent. In urban civic bodies polls, BJP recorded a dismal vote share of just over 13 per cent.

Welfare schemes of TMC-led govt

‘Duare Sarkar’, one of the most popular initiatives of the Mamata government, launched before the 2021 assembly polls, has received an overwhelming response from every corner. BJP needs to set a watertight strategy to even compete with TMC in rural areas where the ruling party of the state seems to be enjoying enviable support despite the recent corruption charges and arrests of its key leaders.