India suspended the Indus Water Treaty with immediate effect on Wednesday following a horrific terrorist attack that killed 26 and left several others injured. The government has also downgraded diplomatic ties — asking Pakistani nationals to leave the country within 48 hours and closing the Attari-Wagah border crossing.
“The Indus Waters Treaty of 1960 will be held in abeyance with immediate effect until Pakistan credibly and irrevocably abjures its support for cross-border terrorism,” announced Foreign Secretary Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri.
The decision was taken following a meeting of the Cabinet Committee on Security — led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Defence Minister Rajnath Singh had also vowed a “loud and clear response” to the attack earlier on Wednesday after chairing a high-level meeting with the Chief of Defence Staff and three service chiefs.
What is the Indus Water Treaty?
The agreement was signed in 1960 and pertains to the distribution of water from the Indus River system between India and Pakistan. It was brokered by the World Bank during the tenure of Jawaharlal Nehru and has previously survived decades or hostility and even wars. The Treaty had given India complete rights over the water of Ravi, Beas and Sutlej rivers while Pakistan had rights ever Indus, Jhelum and Chenab rivers.
But the six rivers originate in either Tibet (Indus and Sutlej) or various Indian states before flowing through the country and finally entering Pakistan. These rivers flow downstream from India to Pakistan — giving New Delhi the chance to take control of the water and even use dams to completely stop it from reaching the other country. As such a cancellation of the treaty could have a direct and dramatic impact on the lives of ordinary Pakistanis.
‘Act of war’
Pakistan had insisted in 2016 (during the tenure of Nawaz Sharif) that blocking the Indus waters would be perceived as an “act of war”. Sartaj Aziz (then the foreign affairs adviser) had also broached the possibility of approaching the International Court of Justice in case such a decision was taken — contending that there was no provision for the treaty to be suspended while the World Bank remained its guarantor. It remains unclear whether the current Pakistan government led by Shehbaz Sharif will take a similar stance on the developments.
Will the suspension actually affect Pakistan?
Pakistan has long been one of the most water-starved countries in the world due to a combination of factors including population growth and climate change. Experts warn that Islamabad remains on the brink of water scarcity and the suspension of IWT can make the situation significantly worse. The Indus river system is also is the sole source of water for irrigation and human consumption in some parts of the country.
However New Delhi will not be able to immediately stop or divert water away from Pakistan — despite the announcement on Wednesday evening. India would have to build dams and reservoirs along the western rivers of the basin in order to successfully squeeze Pakistan. This would be a lengthy process that could take decades of planning and construction to execute.
Can a suspension affect India?
The suspension of the Indus Water Treaty also comes with complications for India — in the form of additional hostilities and and intense international opposition. It is also likely to further antagonise the Lashkar-e-Taiba terrorist group which has long cited alleged water theft as a talking point in its propaganda.