Political circles are abuzz with speculation that NCP leader Ajit Pawar has made up his mind to jump ship with a sizable chunk of his party MLAs and join ranks with the Bharatiya Janata Party. The leader, who sprung a surprise in the aftermath of the Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena’s departure from the Maha Vikas Aghadi to take oath as Devendra Fadnavis’s deputy, may well be at it again.

Considering that the government in November 2019 lasted a little less than 80 hours, one expects Ajit Pawar’s plan to be on more solid political footing this time around. And it could be so if one goes by the happenings in Maharashtra in the past few months. But we get to that later.

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For now, reports suggest that Ajit Pawar has already begun consultations with NCP MLAs on shifting alliances. If reports are to be believed, over 30 of NCP’s 53 MLAs in the Maharashtra Assembly may back the power shift. On the face of it, party supremo and political veteran Sharad Pawar denied the possibility of the NCP allying with the BJP but added a rider that any decision by party MLAs to join or ally with the BJP would be theirs alone to take.

Power Play

Pawar’s remarks, as quoted by Shiv Sena (UBT) leader Sanjay Raut in his weekly column in Saamna, hint at his characteristic style. When the entire Opposition was rallying behind the Congress in seeking to corner the government over the demand for a Joint Parliamentary Committee probe into the Adani issue, Sharad Pawar unsettled all equations by differing from them. A day later, he appeared to take a step back when he said that he would not oppose the JPC demand for the sake of Opposition unity.

Pawar’s declaration of support for the Narendra Modi-led NDA following the 2014 elections and the surprise move by Ajit Pawar that saw him take oath as the Deputy CM of Maharashtra in an early morning ceremony convened at the Governor’s residence are fresh in everyone’s mind. While that arrangement failed, murmurs did go around suggesting that his nephew’s adventure had the blessings of Sharad Pawar.

Pawar’s ties with senior BJP leader Nitin Gadkari is well known and the presence of senior NCP leader Praful Patel in Vidarbha, sharing the stage with Devendra Fadnavis are just some public instances that suggest NCP and the BJP have been making efforts to mend fences.

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Why MVA is in crisis

There are multiple reasons behind the current crisis that the MVA, comprising the Congress, Shiv Sena (UBT) and the NCP, finds itself in. Three of them stand out. First appears to be the upcoming Lok Sabha election that has left NCP members restless. Ajit Pawar, as per sources, is keen to side with the BJP. The chances of an immediate taste of power and heading into the general elections on stronger footing is a factor enough to lure even the staunchest of loyalists.

The second trigger for the current crisis could be the BJP. After having successfully engineered a revolt within the Shiv Sena and marking its return to power, the party now faces the prospect of the Supreme Court disqualifying 16 MLAs of the Eknath Shinde faction and putting it on the back foot. While back-of-the-envelope arithmetic suggests the ruling government would still scrape through, the BJP may have extended the NCP an olive branch to keep a Plan B ready.

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The third, and perhaps the primary reason behind Uddhav Thackeray and the Congress getting sleepless nights, is Sharad Pawar himself. A seasoned political war-horse, Pawar knows the importance of keeping his friends close and his enemies closer. With the Election Commission having stripped NCP of its national party tag owing to its performance in recent elections, Pawar may be keeping his options open with the BJP.

The clamour for Opposition unity, one that he too joined and articulated after attending a meeting with Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge and ex-MP Rahul Gandhi, should be read with a pinch of salt. Pawar knows there are far too many differences among the constituents of a “united” Opposition to be able to actually put up a fight against the BJP and Modi. One can’t help but assume that Pawar’s presence at the meeting of Opposition leaders and his support for the cause of Opposition unity is anything more than his idea of “testing the waters”.