The Madhya Pradesh assembly elections are all set to take place on November 17 to elect all 230 members of the Madhya Pradesh Legislative Assembly, the Election Commission of India (ECI) announced on Monday.

Once more, the state looks towards a closely contested battle, with the BJP reshaping its strategies and personnel to defend against the challenge posed by the Congress. The latter, competing for retribution following defections that led to the collapse of its government in 2020, promises to make the contest intriguing, infused with local issues, and underlined by Hindutva.

Here are the 5 major determinants that could decide the outcome of the MP Elections 2023:

Also Read: MP Election Date 2023: Madhya Pradesh Assembly election to be held on November 17, results on Dec 3

Emphasis on Hindutva:
During the Jan Ashirwad (public blessing) rallies, the BJP strategically played the Hindutva card, directing its attacks at the Congress over the Sanatan Dharma dispute. On September 14, Prime Minister Modi accused the INDIA bloc of attempting to undermine Sanatan Dharma. The BJP is also prominently showcasing the development of religious tourist circuits, including the Mahakal Lok corridor in Ujjain and the Adi Shankaracharya statue in Omkareshwar, under its watch.

However, the Congress has also delved into “soft” Hindutva, with Kamal Nath positioning himself as a devotee of Lord Hanuman. He was also among the first Congress leaders to distance themselves from the Sanatan remarks by Udhayanidhi Stalin of the DMK. His campaigns so far have all centred around Hindutva and he hasn’t shied away from wearing this religious card on his sleeve.

Also Read: MP Election 2023: In BJP’s lab, their leaders urinate on adivasis, says Rahul Gandhi in Shahdol

The OBC Factor
The Opposition’s commitment to conducting a caste census ensures that the Other Backward Classes (OBC) factor will be a dominant theme in the elections. OBCs constitute approximately 50 per cent of the state’s population, traditionally a key support base for the BJP. Kamal Nath’s government, in 2019, increased OBC reservation in government jobs to 27 per cent, though this was later turned down by the High Court.

Adding to the BJP’s concerns, former CM Uma Bharti, who has expressed dissatisfaction within the BJP, is advocating for OBC reservation within women’s quotas. However, the BJP is displaying the impact of the central government’s policies such as free ration, free cooking gas, housing schemes etc. to counter the Opposition’s caste onslaught.

Also Read: MP Assembly Election 2023: Can Congress oust BJP this time? Candidates list, opinion polls, constituencies – All you need to know

Women-Centric Policies
CM Shivraj Singh Chouhan has taken significant initiative towards women voters with schemes and policies, including a 35 per cent quota in certain government jobs. Madhya Pradesh also boasts of near parity of gender in voter numbers, with 2.67 crore women out of a total of 5.52 crore voters. It is to be seen if the recently-enacted law on women’s reservation by the Centre will have any impact.

Kamal Nath’s party, on the other hand, is championing women-centric policies and criticising the BJP’s record on women’s safety issues, claiming the state ranks highest in women-related crimes.

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Tackling Corruption
The Congress is adopting from its campaign strategies in Karnataka, targeting the BJP over allegations of corruption and calling the Chouhan government a “50% commission” sarkar. Kamal Nath has consistently accused the Chouhan government of fostering a culture of corruption. He has attacked the BJP government, alleging there is “no limit to corruption”. Their slogan for the upcoming election is “Paisa do, Kaam lo (Give money, take jobs).”

In response, the BJP has invoked the past track record of Congress and the corruption charges against Opposition leaders, particularly at the central level, involving allegations of scams in coal and 2G spectrum allocation. PM Modi in his June 27 speech in Bhopal, accused the opposition of indulging in “collectively guarantee scams worth at least Rs 20 lakh crore.”

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Battling Unemployment:
Rising unemployment figures have emerged as a significant concern in the poll-bound state, with the Congress highlighting a dearth of government jobs and suicides among students and unemployed individuals. Priyanka Gandhi, in her Jabalpur speech on June 12, said that the BJP government has only provided 21 government jobs in Madhya Pradesh in the last three years. As per the data on joblessness given by the state assembly in March, 39,93,149 people registered themselves at employment offices in MP.

However, the BJP is counting on programmes like “Seekho Kamao” and job schemes for youths to address the unemployment issue. They countered Congress’s statement by claiming that they had “provided over 61,000 government jobs in the last three years.” Furthermore, Chouhan has pledged to provide a job to each household should his party retain power.