The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Wednesday said that conditions are becoming favourable for monsoon onset over Kerala during next 48 hours.
The Met department said that the latest meteorological features associated with monsoon onset over Kerala show that there is a persistence of westerly winds over south Arabian Sea, increase in the depth of westerly winds up to middle tropospheric levels and increase of cloudiness over areas covering south east Arabian Sea, Lakshadweep and Kerala coasts.
After missing its earlier forecast of the southwest monsoon onset over Kerala coast on Sunday, the weather department has refrained from providing a definite forecast of the start of the seasonal rains, which account for 75% of the country’s annual rainfall.
The private weather forecaster Skymet had predicted the onset to be around June 9. It has earlier predicted the onset of monsoon to be around June 7, with an error of three days.
No change has, however, been made to the IMD’s April 11 forecast that the precipitation this year will be in the “normal” range, at the 96% of the long-period average (LPA). Skymet had earlier said monsoon precipitation this year could be “below normal” at 94% of the LPA. Rainfall between 96-104% of the LPA is considered “normal”.
IMD has earlier said monsoon normally sets in over Kerala on June 1, with a standard deviation of about seven days. In the last 10 years, the earliest arrival was in 2018 and 2022 (May 29), and the most delayed onset was in 2019 (June 8).
The IMD’s forecast last month for the onset of monsoon over Kerala coast on June 4 had an error margin of four days.
Meanwhile, the met department has predicted light to widespread rainfall over Kerala, Lakshadweep, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh during next five days.
It also predicted severe cyclonic storm named ‘Biparjoy’ over the Arabian Sea.
It predicted heatwave conditions likely to continue over Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana during next 4-5 days.