Lok Sabha Election 2024 survey: The Arvind Kejriwal-led Aam Aadmi Party could emerge as the biggest winner in the INDIA alliance of Opposition parties in the Lok Sabha elections scheduled to be held six months from now, a survey conducted by India TV-CNX has predicted. The survey, conducted after the INDIA alliance of the Opposition parties took shape, suggests that the gains for the Aam Aadmi Party could be by as much as ten times or a whopping 1,000 per cent.

As per the survey, the findings of which were released in the last week of July, could Kejriwal’s AAP could put up its best performance in any Lok Sabha election so far if it decides to contest the elections jointly with the Opposition’s INDIA alliance. The AAP recently joined hands with the Opposition and was part of its meetings in Patna as well as Bengaluru after receiving the Congress’ backing to its resistance against the Delhi ordinance Bill in Parliament.

Also Read: Lok Sabha Elections 2024: Opinion poll findings from six states that should worry the Opposition

The Government of National Capital Territory of Delhi (Amendment) Bill, 2023, which seeks to replace the Centre’s ordinance recapturing the control over transfer and postings of bureaucrats in Delhi, was passed by a voice vote in the Lok Sabha on Friday. The Bill now heads to the Rajya Sabha where it is likely to be taken up next week. Despite being short of a majority, the NDA is likely to get the Bill passed smoothly with the support of the BJD, YSRCP and the TDP.

Much of the discussions around the Bill in Lok Sabha centred around the alliance that Kejriwal had entered with the Congress, a party it has fought tooth and nail in every state that it has won or contested. Union minister Amit Shah, addressing the Lok Sabha on the Bill, advised the Opposition to exercise caution. “There is still time. Listen to your conscience. Arvind Kejriwal will eventually ditch you as soon as this Bill is passed.”

Also Read: Lok Sabha Elections 2024: Opinion polls place BJP firmly in lead, Congress gains ground

Contrary to the Home minister’s assumptions, the alliance with Opposition parties, Congress in particular, may prove more handy to the AAP than the BJP would like. In Delhi, for instance, the BJP could suffer a significant setback if the AAP and Congress contest elections jointly. The BJP currently holds all 7 Lok Sabha seats in the capital. If the AAP-Congress alliance contests Delhi jointly, the BJP could suffer damage of 2 seats and be limited to 5.

While the alliance with Congress could allow AAP to open its account in Delhi for the first time, Punjab could see a sweep if the warring sides manage to shed their differences. Of the 13 seats in the state, the AAP is projected to win 8 seats and the Congress, 5. In the 2019 elections, the Congress had bagged 8 seats while the NDA, comprising Shiromani Akali Dal and the BJP, won 2 seats each.

Also Read: Lok Sabha Elections 2024: Modi vs Who, if not Rahul Gandhi?

Cumulatively, the opinion poll predicts that the AAP, which currently has 1 Lok Sabha MP, could see its tally raise to 10. The party bagged 4 seats in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the first general election it contested.

As per the India TV-CNX opinion poll, the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance is projected to win 318 of the 543 seats in the Lok Sabha, down from 353 seats in the 2019 elections and 336 in the elections held in 2014.