Above normal rainfall is expected in several parts of central, southern peninsular, and northeast India during north-eastern monsoon season (October-December), the India Meteorological Department (MD) said on Tuesday.
Rainfall over the south peninsular India consisting of five meteorological subdivisions – Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Karaikal, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, Kerala and south interior Karnataka is most likely to be ‘above normal’ or 112% of benchmark – long period average (LPA) – during post southwest monsoon season, Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director general, IMD said in a briefing.
However, most parts of northwest India, some regions of northeast India and southernmost parts of the country are expected to receive normal to below normal rainfall during the next three months.
The met department also said the rainfall during October 2024 is most likely to be ‘above normal’ or 115 % of LPA.
“The spatial distribution suggests above-normal rainfall in many parts of the country during October. However, some areas in northeast and northwest India, as well as a few pockets in the southern peninsula, are likely to experience normal to below normal rainfall,” the IMD said.
Stating that currently, neutral El Nino conditions are observed, Mohapatra said ‘the probability forecast indicates a higher chance of development of La Niña conditions during the post-monsoon season.
The Met department’s forecast for October-December period comes after the southwest monsoon season (June-September) comes to an end on Monday with the country receiving 8% more rainfall against the benchmark or ‘above normal’ range as per the forecast by IMD at the beginning of the season.
This has given a boost to kharif crops sowing as well as water levels in key reservoirs.
The country received 934.8 mm of rainfall during the four-month season, compared with a normal benchmark of 868.6 mm, the met department said.
In terms of regional variations, northwest (7%), central India (19.5%) and south peninsula (13.09%) received hugely surplus rainfall above the LPA. This season, the rainfall was deficient in the east and northeast by 13.8%.
Overall, out of 724 districts 78% of them received normal or excess rainfall while the rest of 150 odd districts received deficient to scanty rainfall during monsoon season.
“As we predicted, monsoon progress has been good. June saw rain deficiency while in July, August and September we received ‘above normal’ monsoon rains ,” Mohapatra, had told FE.
In May, the met department had reiterated its earlier forecast of ‘above normal’ monsoon rainfall at 106% of benchmark average during June-September this year with 92% chances of the rains being in the “normal-to-excess” range.
On September 23, the met department announced withdrawal of southwest monsoon (June – September) marking the beginning of the culmination of its four months journey during which the country gets more than 70% of its annual rainfall.