The country is likely to experience “above normal” monsoon rains in July, which received close to a third of total precipitation, during June-September season, Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Monday.
Rainfall in July, 2025 may exceed 106% of the benchmark – long period average (LPA) while in June, overall rainfall was 109% above the benchmark or above normal level”, Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director general, IMD, said.
With the early onset over Kerala coast last month on May 24, the monsoon covered the entire country nine days ahead of the normal schedule on Sunday, has given a boost to kharif crops sowing.
“Many parts of the country are likely to experience normal to above-normal rainfall in July while most parts of northeast India, many parts of east, extreme south Peninsular India and some areas of northwest, are likely to receive below-normal rainfall,” Mohapatra said.
The prospects of adequate rainfall so far boosts hopes of robust agriculture-sector output for a second year in row. Kharif sowing accounts for about 60% of the annual crop production. Monsoon rains also provide soil moisture for the winter crops.
According to the agriculture ministry, area under kharif crops – paddy, pulses, oilseeds, cotton and sugarcane – has crossed 26.21 million hectare (Mha), over 11% more than previous year. While kharif crops sowing would continue till September, paddy, pulses and coarse cereals sowing has began on brisk note.
Paddy sowing because of the early onset of monsoon has been up by over 47% at 3.5 mha on year while area under pulses – tur, urad and moong are up by 37% at 2.1 mha so far. Overa kharif sown area is 109.66 mha.
Experts said adequate rainfall during July and August are crucial for boosting crop yield for kharif crops as well as ensuring that reservoirs are adequately filled.
The government has set a record target of 354.64 MT for food grains production in the 2025-26 crop year (July-June). However, this target for the foodgrain production is likely to be revised upward if monsoon rains are as per the projection by the met department.
The met department also ruled out occurrence of El Nino weather pattern which usually adversely impact rainfall, till end of monsoon season and may continue into winter of 2025-26
This is the fourth consecutive year during which the monsoon rains progressed across the country well before the normal schedule of July 8. In 2015 and 2020, monsoon rains covered the country on June 26.
IMD last month had reiterated its earlier forecast of ‘above normal’ monsoon rainfall at 106% of LPA during June-September this year.
There is also 90% chances of the rains being in the “normal-to-excess” range through the four-month (June-September) season, the met department has stated.
In 2024, rains were 108% of the benchmark or above normal level, according to the IMD making it the best monsoon in four years.
The IMD classifies ‘normal’ rainfall between 96% and 104% of LPA. Rainfall between 90%-95% is considered ‘below normal’ while precipitation below 90% of LPA is termed ‘deficient’.
Rainfall in the range of 105-110% is considered ‘above normal’. The LPA is average rainfall received during 1971-2020 at 87 centimetres.
Around 75% of India’s annual rainfall occurs during the monsoon season, which replenishes water reservoirs, rivers, lakes, and groundwater, which are vital for irrigation and drinking water supplies.