No, the BJP hasn?t lost it. It does not believe that the prime minister will resign just because it is asking him to do so. Nor is it stupid and unthinking.
You can agree, or disagree, but here is what the BJP is thinking: That, finally, they have their big opportunity, their 2012 Bofors moment. It is for the first time since 2004 that they have a scam that reaches the very top of the Congress party and the prime minister. Until now, the Congress had been able to deflect all scams and failures to an inconvenient ally. The 2G scam was blamed on the DMK, and an angry public was calmed by sending A. Raja and Kanimozhi to jail and Dayanidhi Maran into oblivion. Price rise was blamed on another ally, Sharad Pawar. The questions over the Air India aircraft purchases were similarly dumped on Praful Patel even though the decision was taken by an EGoM led by a Congress minister (P. Chidambaram). Lack of economic reform and policy paralysis were ?because of? Mamata Banerjee, the usual suspect. In short, as a top BJP leader explained to me, the Congress was ?getting away comfortably? with a three-point formula: pradhan mantri imaandar, allies beimaan, aur gathbandhan ki majboori (the PM is honest, the allies are crooks and there are compulsions in coalition politics).
The BJP believes the CAG report on coal has changed all that. The coal portfolio has always been held by the Congress, and for a very long spell by the prime minister himself. Even the two ministers of state who assisted him in the coal ministry, Dasari Narayana Rao and Santosh Bagrodia, are from the Congress. So there are no alibis. And here is the story that the leadership of the BJP seems to believe: that the mines were given out on a cash-and-carry basis, that allottees were paying the powers that be and simply reporting to the prime minister?s office with little slips confirming that they had paid their tribute, to collect their mines as ?negotiated.?
The attack, for once, can be directed at the prime minister and the top leadership of the Congress. The prime minister is seen to be a particularly useful target because he is thin-skinned. Why is he then not being allowed to face Parliament where the BJP?s articulate heavyweights could take him and his party apart?
The BJP believes that a parliamentary discussion will dilute their case. That irrespective of whether they have a plain discussion, or one with a vote or adjournment motion, it would end inconclusively and with the government proving, once again, its majority and stability. A couple of days? discussion will simply lead to a return to parliamentary routine: passage of some bills, individual and regional demands and so on. This will take the sting out of their campaign. They would, therefore, rather have this session conclude with the coal scam still top-of-the-mind.
Even the less combative elements in the BJP leadership are doubtful that putting the coal CAG report through the usual parliamentary committee process will work when the majority will be able to block the PAC, or even a JPC if it is set up, through lung-power and filibustering. A return to the parliamentary process so soon, they believe, will put the coal scam in ?orbit.? It is too valuable a property for them to risk losing this way. The BJP also takes heart from its experience of writing off an entire winter session in 2010 on their demand for a JPC in the 2G scam. The disruptionism may have looked like a public opinion disaster but, in the end, it yielded a JPC, a fresh auction with new base prices that pretty much justify the CAG estimate of a R1.76 lakh crore loss, prosecution and jailing of Raja and others and a real opportunity of putting Chidambaram on the defensive, if not finally in the doghouse. What is the loss of one more Parliament session if similar gains could be made on the coal scam? Because, given the timing, its fallout will determine the course of the next election, whether it is in 2014, or as many BJP leaders expect, in March 2013, if Mamata and Mulayam decide to cut their losses.
Of course, you can pick many holes in this, and take apart the assumptions, because so many of them seem simplistic and unsustainable. For one, this ek- dhakka-aur-do-and-the-UPA-will-fall is easier said than done. But this is where the BJP is coming from. The UPA, they believe, is shaky, and if they are now able to target its central column, its collapse will be hastened. They are also encouraged by several recent opinion polls that show the NDA, despite having fewer allies, to be in the ascendant while the UPA is on the decline.
Why the hurry, then? Why not wait till 2014? Why not give the UPA more time to complete its self-destruction, particularly if you think it runs such an irretrievably disastrous government? This is where the BJP?s internal dynamic comes in. An early election solves some internal issues for the BJP, at least for now; the issue of leadership, for example. A 2014 election will almost certainly force the NDA to announce a leader and a prime ministerial candidate. L.K. Advani will be 87 by then and presumably no longer a candidate of overall consensus or convenience. Two of the party?s much younger chief ministers, Narendra Modi, and maybe even Shivraj Singh Chouhan, would have strengthened their claims with fresh state assembly victories. It will complicate life greatly for the stalwarts of its central leadership. A call will then most likely be taken by the only real high command the party has, the RSS, and then all bets will be off. An early election in a Bofors-like environment will help avoid this. It would be possible to come to power by merely seeking a vote against a ?corrupt UPA? rather than on the basis of a competing national agenda and a leader. The prime ministership, then, will be a more open contest among equals.
You can certainly disagree with the BJP?s hypotheses, assumptions and expectations. But they are by no means irrational or merely shooting from the hip in blind alleys after smoking something silly while watching Gangs of Wasseypur. They believe the CAG reports have brought power tantalisingly close to their grasp, and they have made their move. It is now the Congress party?s turn to respond. The game?s on.
sg@expressindia.com