Just as one began to assume a glimmer of hope that Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to the Bihar Assembly to mark its centenary celebrations, and showering praise on Chief Minister Nitish Kumar had managed to placate the floundering alliance between the Bharatiya Janata Party and the Janata Dal (United), it looks like what one witnessed was a mirage – a bonhomie that was never meant to be. 

And the signals of the deepening divisions within the ruling alliance couldn’t have been starker. In the 10 days leading up to the swearing-in ceremony of President Droupadi Murmu, Nitish has skipped as many as three BJP events — first the July 17 meeting of chief ministers on matters concerning the national flag, a farewell dinner for outgoing President Ramnath Kovind on July 22, and then Murmu’s oath ceremony on July 25. 

NDA’s rumblings and a rocky past

The sentiment within the BJP over Nitish Kumar giving central events a consistent miss is not one would associate with a healthy alliance. While BJP leaders from Bihar maintain that the decision to skip Droupadi Murmu’s swearing-in ceremony is Nitish Kumar’s “personal decision”, the displeasure, , though hushed, is apparent about the Chief Minister’s repeated snubs.

And it should come as no surprise either. The BJP and JD(U) have not exactly shared a healthy rapport for most part of the NDA government’s second tenure. The run-ins have been frequent, and public — be it over a caste-based census, the CM’s retort to Home Minister Amit Shah’s remarks on “rewriting history”, or the law and order situation under the watch of the CM who also happens to hold the charge of the state’s Home department. 

Experts believe that Nitish Kumar, staring at an uncertain future after his decision to snap ties with Lalu Yadav’s Rashtriya Janata Dal that resulted in the fall of the Mahagathbandhan government, is fighting his last battle. With the BJP having outsmarted the JD(U) to register a victory on more seats in the last Assembly elections in the state — having won 74 seats against the JD(U)’s 43 — Nitish is unwilling to play second fiddle. The unceremonious exit of RCP Singh from the Rajya Sabha and the Modi cabinet was an indication of just that. So were Nitish Kumar’s remarks on the Centre’s Agnipath schemes and 
The BJP’s attempts to show Nitish his place have not helped the alliance either. Be it calls for appointing a CM from the BJP, refusing Nitish the desired number of cabinet berths and the saffron party’s constant criticism of the Nitish-led administration on issues ranging from the prohibition law, law and order and corruption have clearly not gone down well with the JD(U) supremo.

The BJP pushback

Despite signals from the BJP’s top leadership that all is well in the alliance, the saffron party appears to be prepping itself for life in Bihar minus the JD(U). In what many within the BJP see as a pushback against the JD(U) in Bihar, and a show of strength ahead of the Lok Sabha elections in 2024, the BJP has called a meeting of all its Morchas (wings) in Patna from July 30-31. 

The meeting, which will see the participation of about 700 delegates, will also be attended by BJP national president JP Nadda and Home minister Amit Shah. On agenda are the party’s plans to discuss preparations and speed up its social engineering drive. 

The meeting assumes significance as the BJP’s outreach plan encompasses all 243 Assembly constituencies in Bihar and communities that form part of Nitish Kumar’s core vote base. While a similar convention organised by the BJP ahead of the Lok Sabha elections in 2019 only covered the Other Backward Classes, this year the outreach will cover Scheduled Castes, Scheduled Tribes and the youth. Significantly, the outreach will also include women, a section that has overwhelmingly backed Nitish over the prohibition law and on the issue of law and order.