Artificial intelligence (AI) and digitalisation are rapidly emerging as the next major growth engine for the global oil and gas industry, with exploration and production (E&P) companies expected to unlock nearly $500 billion in cumulative value between 2026 and 2030 through lower operating costs, higher production and faster project execution, according to Rystad Energy.
The consultancy estimated that E&P companies investing in AI and digital technologies could generate an additional $80 billion annually by 2030 compared with 2025 levels, as oil producers increasingly deploy predictive maintenance, automated drilling, remote operations and AI-led reservoir modelling across upstream operations.
The projected value creation assumes significance at a time when oil producers globally are under pressure to cut costs, improve recovery rates and accelerate production amid volatile crude markets and rising energy demand.
“Cost reductions and production increases are the largest value pools and contribute roughly equally through 2030,” Rystad Energy said.
The report said upstream firms globally spent around $25 billion on digital and AI-related purchases last year, while the market for digital oilfield tools and services is projected to grow by more than $10 billion by 2030, crossing $35 billion annually before approaching $50 billion by 2035.
The returns are already becoming visible among major oil producers.
Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) reported $500 million in AI-driven value creation in 2023 and has committed $1.5 billion in digital capital expenditure targeting $1 billion in annual value creation.
Norway’s Equinor generated around $200 million in AI-related savings between 2021 and 2024 before reporting another $130 million in 2025 alone.
“The trajectory is not linear. Digital value creation follows a compounding curve as adoption increases and organizational capabilities mature,” the report noted.
Subsurface Workflows
Rystad said the biggest untapped opportunity lies in subsurface workflows including exploration, reservoir development, drilling and production optimisation, where AI is helping companies sharply compress timelines and reduce operational costs.
Several operators have reduced seismic interpretation timelines from several months to nearly 10 days using AI-enabled workflows, while predictive maintenance and remote operations are already delivering double-digit cost reductions across operations and maintenance functions.
“A key structural finding across all four workflow categories is that AI, in general, does not necessarily raise the ceiling for the best operators, it lifts the rest of the industry towards the performance level that the best operator already achieves,” the report said.
According to the consultancy, average drilling improvement potential for US land assets is close to 10%, while more complex deepwater wells could deliver savings exceeding 50% in extreme cases, although 15-20% improvement is considered more representative.
Accelerated AI Targets
Rystad projected that in an accelerated AI adoption scenario, annual value creation from digital initiatives could reach $150 billion by 2030 and exceed $300 billion by 2035.
“This accelerated AI scenario would also require additional spending on digital solutions, up to $50 billion annually in 2030 and close to $80 billion by 2035,” it said.
The report highlighted that the central challenge remains deployment at scale rather than technology availability.
“Traditional cloud migration can take multiple years, cybersecurity gates add months, while cross-silo collaboration requires cultural shifts that no software can automate,” it said.