By Dr Aprajita Kashyap
Venezuela has for decades laid claim to Essequibo, an oil and resource rich region within Guyana. Besides, it is home to 125,000 of the 800,000 population of Guyana. Historically, Essequibo was part of Venezuela during the Spanish Colonisation, which changed when this region was awarded to Guyana in 1899 by an International Arbitral Award. In 1841 the Venezuelan government alleged that, in its acquisition of British Guiana (now Guyana) from the Netherlands, the British had encroached on Venezuelan territory. Venezuelan claim is based on the fact that the Essequibo River to the region’s east forms a natural border, and the artificially created border was distorted. The escalation came in the aftermath of the discovery of a mammoth reserve of oil by Exxon Mobil in 2015. Guyana received bids from local and foreign companies for the exploration licence.
With these resources, Guyana may easily surpass Venezuela in oil production by 2025. Based on predictions, it may well tread on the road to becoming the world’s largest per-capita crude producer. It becomes imperative for Venezuela to lay claims over Essequibo to give a kick to its sagging economy. Venezuela held a non-binding referendum on December 3, 2023 in which the voters were asked whether they supported establishing it as a province, granting citizenship to the area residents and rejecting the jurisdiction of the World Court (ICJ) in settling the disagreement between the two countries. The importance of this referendum is that Venezuela has to defend the territorial integrity and sovereignty of a region that historically is its part. The alleged low turnout was countered by claims that the voting had been a total success. Ninety-five per cent of Venezuelans voted in favour of creating a new province in the Essequibo region.
The referendum was conducted despite the ICJ warning Venezuela against ‘taking any action’ on a matter that was sub-judice. Undoubtedly, the Venezuelan referendum has been held to create unity in a divided country on issues of border, which evokes nationalistic sentiments and becomes a unifying factor. The motive covertly is the deflection of discontent of the citizenry on domestic issues given President Nicolás Maduro’s extreme unpopularity.
Interestingly, even though Maria Corina Machado, the Presidential candidate of the Venezuelan opposition in the 2024 elections, talks about the futility of the referendum since this matter was being adjudicated by the ICJ, she reverberates Maduro’s assertion of Essequibo being an integral part of Venezuela. It can potentially break the opposition with the dilemma of supporting or boycotting the vote. The Venezuelan government has ordered state companies to exploit gas and oil in the contested region by granting operating licences for exploration and exploitation. An ultimatum has been given to Guyanese companies to withdraw their operations within three months.
With regard to the stand of Guyana, President Irfan Ali hoisted his country’s flag in the Essequibo region as a symbolic gesture to assert sovereignty. Seemingly, the Guyanese Defence Forces are on high alert in response to the movement of Venezuelan armed personnel along the border. Since Guyana has a minuscule army, the government is compelled to reach out to its regional partners, with some of whom Guyana has good relations and even defence agreements. Guyana has also signalled to its allies and leaders abroad, including the US, India and Cuba, in the hope that ‘they can encourage Venezuela to do what is right’. It could approach the UN Security Council and ICJ as an injured party for help if Venezuela makes any moves following the referendum. In a letter to the Security Council, Guyana said that under Article 94(1) of the UN Charter, Venezuela is obligated to comply with the ICJ’s decisions. Besides, President Ali has assured the investors who have been asked to pull out that they had nothing to fear.
Examining the stance of countries, India is expected to tilt towards Guyana due to the diaspora connection. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has reaffirmed Washington’s position that Guyana has full sovereignty over the Essequibo region. Brazil has started reinforcing its northern border due to the rising tensions between Venezuela and Guyana. The Brazilian government has stated that it will support Venezuela and Guyana in resolving the border dispute. Brazil’s top foreign policy advisor Celso Amorim has urged Venezuela to avoid the use of force or threat over the border region. The role of China will be interesting as a stabiliser. Beijing’s remark that both countries were good friends of China has come in the wake of the referendum. It asserts that it has always respected sovereignty and territorial integrity. On the question of Russia backing Venezuela if there is an outbreak, the answer would be in the affirmative, given the ideological affinity and the possibility of distracting the world from the Ukraine crisis. Aspersions are cast over Russia as a force that has encouraged Maduro to act like this.
The stand-off would ignite concerns for stability amongst the regional groupings in the wake of the implementation of the referendum’s results. The Organisation of American States (OAS) and the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) stand clearly with Georgetown. The Commonwealth also has offered full support to Guyana, a valued Commonwealth member. The statement clearly stated- “Commonwealth reiterates our collective faith in due process, respect for national territorial sovereignty, international law, global order, peace and security and cordial international relations in the Caribbean and the Latin American region”. The Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC) is expected to mediate between the two countries, and Brazil would host meetings between Venezuela and Guyana.
By way of conclusion, the amalgamation of geopolitics, economic interests and historical claims has escalated the stand-off. However, the optimism for de-escalation is bolstered by the fact that the two countries have decided to keep the communication channels open for negotiations. Despite Maduro having envisioned a temporary government and releasing a new map of Venezuela, he will not invade the contested territory since he is wary of the fact that any move would invite international condemnation. Maduro is not a Chavez and has lack of acceptance in the Western world. The Venezuelan military has also suffered considerably during the recent economic crisis. It would need substantial modernisation before embarking on an inter-state conflict. Even the allies of Venezuela, such as Cuba or Brazil, are not in favour of an armed conflict and are endorsing the use of dialogue and diplomacy. ICJ has opined that Venezuela must refrain from taking any action in this dispute pending a final decision in the case
For Venezuela, which has faced hyperinflation, international sanctions, and economic crises in recent years, a revival of the country’s oil industry would be possible by this annexation. Analysts say that the referendum vote was an attempt by Maduro to gauge his government’s support ahead of the 2024 presidential election. Given the fact that Guyana has only very limited troops, the issue may culminate in another proxy war.
(The author is Faculty of Latin American Studies, CCUS&LAS, SIS JNU, New Delhi)
Disclaimer: Views expressed are personal and do not reflect the official position or policy of Financial Express Online. Reproducing this content without permission is prohibited.