After a brief lull in October, the Indian box office is all set to come alive in November and December with a spate of movie releases happening across languages during the period.
At least 10 big films will vie for the viewer’s attention over the next two months, beginning with the ongoing Diwali weekend, which will stretch from Friday to Tuesday and is expected to bring in Rs 240-250 crore in business, according to film exhibitors and distributors.
This is due to a mix of movies including Hollywood film The Marvels, Tamil films Japan and Jigarthanda, Marathi films Naal 2 and Shyamchi Aai, all which have released on Friday. While the big one, which is Salman Khan-starrer Tiger 3, will release on Sunday, the day of Diwali.
Among the movies that will release in December include Animal, featuring Ranbir Kapoor and Sam Bahadur, starring Vicky Kaushal, which will release on December 1; Siddharth Malhotra’s Yodha and Katrina-Kaif-Vijay-Sethupati-starrer Merry Christmas, which will release on December 8, Hollywood movie Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom, which will release on December 20, and Prabhas-starrer Salaar as well as Shah Rukh Khan’s Dunki, which will release on December 22.
“Tiger 3, in my view, will set the tone for the Diwali weekend and will determine how the month of November will do in terms of box-office collections. December is a packed month, with multiple movies due for release,” Kunal Sawhney, chief operating officer at CineLine India, which runs the MovieMax chain of multiplexes, said.
While Tiger 3 has collected over Rs 12 crore in advance bookings, trade experts expect the movie to open at about Rs 35-40 crore on Sunday. The film could go on to collect Rs 100 crore in the days after Diwali, according to Komal Nahta, a film trade analyst, since it is part of a successful franchise, coming from the house of YRF Films.
At a broader level, multiplex chains such as PVR Inox, the largest operator of cinemas in the country, expect the December quarter to be on par with the September quarter, which was the best for the movie industry this calendar year, having crossed Rs 3,000 crore in terms of box-office collections across all languages. Normally, it is the December quarter that is considered to be the best for the industry.
However, media analysts such as Karan Taurani, senior vice-president, research at Mumbai-based brokerage Elara Capital believe that a weak October will weigh in on overall performance of the December quarter.
Barring Thalapathy-Vijay-starrer Leo, which crossed Rs 500 crore in worldwide box office collections in October, of which over Rs 300 crore came from the domestic market alone, there was no other big film in theatres during the month. This had to do in part with the ongoing ODI Men’s Cricket World Cup, which saw viewer attention shift to the action on the field rather than on the big screen, experts said.
“The month of October was poor as occupancy levels were in the range of 20-22% in cinemas versus 32.3% seen in the September quarter. While the November-December does have some big-budget Hindi movies, regional and English-language films could be mixed in terms of performance,” Taurani said.
Abhishek Jain, head of research at Mumbai-based brokerage Arihant Capital Market, believes that the festive quarter could see a strong comeback if the upcoming Hindi lineup does well at the box office.
“The December quarter was impacted due to the Cricket World Cup. But the challenges notwithstanding, the box office revenue for the quarter could improve because of the strong line-up of films over the next two months,” he says.
Big movies are back in theatres as the cricket season winds down
Salman-Khan-starrer Tiger 3, releasing on Sunday, expected to open at Rs 35-40 crore
Advance bookings of Tiger 3 at over Rs 12 crore
December will see films such as Animal, Sam Bahadur, Merry Christmas, Yodha, Salaar, Dunki and Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom release in theatres