If the BJP were to fancy its chances of emerging as the single largest party, it would bank heavily on Madhya Pradesh to deliver. After all, the party had registered a stunning performance in 2004, winning 25 out of the 29 seats, leaving the Congress with only four members in the 14th Lok Sabha. The oldest national party won one more seat in a by-election but that’s about all.
The 2009 elections are taking place with the BJP in power for more than five years in Madhya Pradesh. Though the state has earlier seen three non-Congress governments in its 53-year history, none could complete its term.
The BJP came to power in 2003 with a landslide win and registered a comprehensive victory in the 2008 Assembly elections.
The Congress nearly doubled its tally to 71 but its chronic factionalism has remained intact. The BJP, on the other hand, has a strong organisational network in the state, with the RSS cadres forming its backbone.
Politics in the central Indian state is essentially bipolar with the BSP and the SP being marginal players. The BSP got seven seats while the SP got only one seat, that too in a district that shares its boundary with Uttar Pradesh. The Gondwana Gantantra Party, which had promised to do well in tribal areas, has disintegrated into several factions. The Bharatiya Janshakti Party, which won five seats in the Assembly elections, is not in the fray, with its leader Uma Bharati campaigning in support of LK Advani.
The BJP?s vote share dropped to 37.70% in 2008 from 42.50% in the 2003 Assembly elections but despite improving its performance the Congress?s share plummeted to 32.40% from the 37.70% it registered five years ago. The BSP improved its share from 7.26% to 8.93%.
The Congress had installed a new PCC president a few months before the Assembly elections but the change did not help the party much as factionalism continues to dog the dispirited apparatus. In contrast, the BJP has flourished under chief minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan, whose low-key style of campaigning attracts the largely rural electorate.
While the BJP fielded most of its MPs, the Congress continued to revise its list till the very last moment. PCC chief Suresh Pachauri was himself in contention from Hoshangabad but opted out at the last moment for reasons best known to him and the party. AICC general secretary Digvijay Singh, who was chief minister for 10 years from 1993, has stuck to his vow of not contesting any election for 10 years after the resounding defeat he was handed by the BJP in 2003.
Cabinet ministers Kamal Nath and Jyotiraditya Scindia are candidates from Chhindwara and Guna constituencies. Both candidates are expected to retain their seats. The BJP on its part has fielded senior leader Sushma Swaraj from the Vidisha seat. Swaraj, who is also in-charge of the party?s election in-charge of MP, has almost got a walkover after her Congress rival Rajkumar Patel?s nomination was rejected on technical grounds.