The National Rural Employment Guarantee scheme is the single largest public works programme in human history. Showcasing the United Progressive Alliance?s commitment to inclusive growth, it has had no small role to play in the formation?s startling electoral triumph.

The scheme made the government legally accountable for providing employment to all citizens seeking work. It was notified in 200 districts in February 2006, extended to an additional 130 districts in 2007-08, and across the whole country in April 2008.

So, how has this massive public work programme impacted electoral outcomes? Its growing popularity is one indicator. There were 2.12 crore households demanding employment in 2006-07. The numbers rose to 3.43 crore in 2007-08 and to 4.52 crore in 2008-09. The government, in response, was forced to increase the number of households provided employment from 2.1 crore to 3.39 crore and further to 4.46 crore during this period.

Obviously, the expansion of the NREG to 4.46 households by just the third year is an impressive achievement. Equally obviously, it has had a major impact on both the economy and the polity. For one, the inclusion of 4.46 crore households in the scheme would mean that it has impacted almost 70% of the country?s rural labour households! There are 6.42 crore of them in India, and it is highly unlikely that any other scheme?including the PDS?has had a comparable impact on their well-being, or on rural welfare and poverty reduction in general.

Next, let?s look at employment generation. Total person days of employment created have shot up from 90 crore in the first year to 144 crore in the second, and 339 crore in the third. Expenditure on the NREG has gone up from Rs 12,074 crore in 2006-07 to Rs 19,279 crore in 2007-08, and further to Rs 36,153 crore in 2008-09. And we will see the government pumping in even more money. The most recent numbers show that it has already spent a massive Rs 6,622 crore on the scheme in the first one and a half months of 2009-10.

This expenditure has clearly had a vital effect on asset creation in rural India. Total works taken up under the programme have shot up three-fold over the last three years, from 8.41 lakh to 17.81 lakh and further to 27.13 lakh. Number of works completed grew from 3.96 lakh to 8.20 lakh and further to 12.04 lakh during the period.

Brief summary of achievements listed so far: NREG has initiated work on creating 53.4 lakh rural assets and pumped in Rs 74,128 crore on employment generation activities across rural India.

Why haven?t we adequately analysed how NREG has impacted the general elections? There is an absence of detailed information on the electoral outcomes in constituencies where the NREG had maximum coverage.

But a focus on broad electoral outcome in states where the scheme made the deepest inroads will easily substantiate its powerful political impact. Let?s just see how the listing of states making maximum NREG use has been changing. In 2006-07 the top 5 states providing jobs to households under the NREG were West Bengal, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh and Bihar.

In 2007-08 the ranking changed substantially, with the top 5 ranks going to Andhra Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and West Bengal. This churning continued in 2008-09, with Rajasthan moving to the top position, followed by Andhra Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh and Bihar.

In four of the five states?Rajasthan, Andhra Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh and Bihar?that provided the maximum number of households with NREG jobs, the political parties heading the state governments scored a resounding victory in the general elections!

Uttar Pradesh alone bucked the trend, with its polity being too fragmented for the BSP to score a significant victory despite successfully implementing the NREG.

Developments in West Bengal merit special mention. Its government was ranked first in NREG implementation in 2006-07, then slipped to the fifth spot next year, and only came in seventh in 2008-09. Even the number of households provided employment through NREG dropped from 38.4 lakh in 2007-08 to 29.9 lakh in 2008-09. In fact, the number of households provided NREG employment in 2008-09 was much lower than even the 30.8 lakh households helped in the programme?s first year.

How much has the recent neglect of the NREG contributed to the rout of the Left in West Bengal? That?s the million dollar question the state?s political leadership should ponder upon.