The GDP of Afghanistan is only about $12 billion. So, it?s big news that the country may be sitting on $1 trillion of untapped mineral deposits?of gold, iron, copper, cobalt, niobium, etc. Around a $223 billion chunk of these Aladdin reserves may be in lithium, oil and gas. This is as per a Pentagon assessment, but based on geological data processed by the Afghans, Brits, Americans and Soviets over time. Afghanistan?s new-found riches could very well mitigate its historical inability to support a modern centralising state that could generate economic growth as well as impose political order. If this comes to pass, the country?s neighbourhood as well as the world at large would have much cause for thanksgiving. Sure, the war-ravaged country has failed to make much of even proven mineral deposits?like iron ore at Hajigak and copper ore at Aynak?over the last few troubled decades. But signs of change are already in the air. Consider that China is now committed to developing the Aynak copper mines. Even at the time China won this project in 2007, its development amount was around 35% of all the development money spent in Afghanistan since 2002. Capitalising on mineral resources can clearly prove a game-changer in this agriculture-dependent country with few service strengths. Indian investments in Afghanistan are not insignificant either. We have been participating in varied infrastructure projects ranging from agriculture, roads and dams to health, telecom and education. Like all other countries that may begin vying for Afghanistan?s newly announced mineral treasures, India, too, will have to factor in certain risks. But given the great potential, this will be a risk worth taking.
Afghanistan is beset by sorrows at present. There is the lack of infrastructure (education, roads, mining know-how, lack of a strong contract law) and there is the lack of security, which makes the business of building infrastructure fraught with risk. But if the country?s mineral wealth is allied with proper reconstruction work, then we could see the country transform. There will, after all, be new incentives for building all sorts of bridges. New industries will also demand a new, modern workforce. A more evolved workforce will have bigger stakes in peace and reconciliation. Stronger, triangular cooperation between Kabul, Delhi and Islamabad can both contribute to and benefit from such a progressive prospect.
