Column: Where does the PM go from here?

What was the one important message in last week?s Cabinet reshuffle? That the economy is not such a big priority for the UPA government at this stage. The more urgent need seems to be to address the political disequilibrium which has shaken the Congress-led coalition in recent months. The sense one gets is that the main focus this year and in 2012 will be to stabilise the UPA, restore the executive?s rightful authority which is under attack from various quarters and demonstrate its strength further by doing well in the assembly elections next year in Uttar Pradesh (UP) and Punjab. Unfortunately, Manmohan Singh will only play a marginal role as the Congress party tries to pursue these objectives.

In any case, Manmohan Singh?s personal authority within the ruling coalition has been declining perceptibly. The manner in which Cabinet minister Murli Deora sent his resignation to Sonia Gandhi and not to the Prime Minister who appointed him reflects a certain growing tendency among Congressmen. More of this attitude will be on display in the months ahead as the battle between the ruling coalition and the Opposition becomes even dirtier. Veerappa Moily, who was removed as law minister, is believed to have told some journalists that the larger administrative/political failures, especially in dealing with a combative judiciary, have been wrongly attributed to the law ministry. The subtext here is that the Prime Minister?s Office (PMO) also plays a key role in managing the broader political environment, which includes maintaining a healthy dialogue with the heads of judiciary and other constitutional bodies like the Comptroller and Auditor General.

The PMO often plays a key role in building a broad consensus over critical national issues by being in touch with other constitutional entities. It appears that the Congress high command is not entirely satisfied with the way the PMO may have conducted itself in this respect. Suddenly, Congressmen themselves are comparing how previous prime ministers like Atal Bihari Vajpayee and PV Narasimha Rao had used the political authority vested in their office to manage the broader political environment. Of course, they were supported by able administrators and political managers. But the vision and ideas in regard to managing the political environment flowed from the very top. Was Manmohan Singh found somewhat wanting in this department, many within the Congress are asking now.

Those who defend the Prime Minister?s style say he is a staunch constitutionalist and, therefore, does not like to preempt legitimate government processes until their outcome is fully visible. Some reject this argument saying it could be used as a justification for not acting in time as crisis after crisis engulfs the government.

So where does Manmohan Singh go from here? His image as an effective political manager has taken serious knocks even if he retains a personally clean image. There was a time when Manmohan Singh showed immense conviction in his sharp retort to senior Opposition leader LK Advani who had described the Prime Minister as a ?nikamma?. Will Manmohan Singh be able to summon the same conviction today is a question many are asking.

So the options before Manmohan Singh in the remaining period of the UPA tenure are rather limited. He can, at best, do a holding operation for the Congress party, which will try to recover its political legitimacy over the next one year as UP goes to the polls. Until then, the focus of many important policy decisions will be UP.

In some sense, UP will witness a sort of mini general election. The Cabinet reshuffle itself had strong signals reflecting UP as a critical factor in the Congress calculations. Jairam Ramesh lost no time at all in declaring that the Land Acquisition Bill will be an important priority for him and that he was open to accepting all the suggestions made by the National Advisory Council headed by Sonia Gandhi. It was not for nothing that just before the Cabinet reshuffle, Rahul Gandhi had started his four-day padyatra of western UP to highlight the farmers? legitimate rights over land acquired for industrial use.

The Congress?s strategy seems quite clear. It did very well in the 2009 UP Lok Sabha elections, notching up 20 seats. The Mayawati-led BSP got 19 seats and Mulayam Singh Yadav?s SP won just a few seats more than the Congress.

History shows, as it did in the recent West Bengal polls, that assembly elections tend to mirror the Lok Sabha voting patterns if held within a few years. If anything, the direction of the voting pattern gets more emphatic, as proved by the extent of Mamata Banerjee?s big victory. The Congress would naturally hope that its dramatic recovery in the UP Lok Sabha polls in 2009 will be mirrored in the assembly elections, too. Armed with this logic, Rahul Gandhi will leave no stone unturned in UP in the months ahead as the Mayawati government becomes more prone to committing political blunders.

The BJP is acutely aware of this and UP remains critical for its own revival at the national level. So it will up the ante so much at the Centre as to make life extremely difficult for the Congress-led UPA. The BJP?s attempt will be to ensure that the charges of corruption and governance failure against the Congress attain such a critical mass as to make the UP voters reject the Congress as an alternative. In the midst of this bitter political battle who will have the time for implementing the next round of growth-oriented economic reforms at the Centre? The economist in Dr Manmohan Singh will most likely slip into an extended period of silence. The politician in him will continue to take directions from the high command at regular intervals.

mk.venu@expressindia.com