It is natural, particularly for the youth, to be a part of a revolution. Just witness the outpouring of support for what was considered to be India?s Tahrir Square?the Hazare led anti-corruption movement. Very likely, it was our anxiety to be part of a movement, any movement, so that we could show solidarity with the Jasmine Revolution in the Middle East.
Most likely, the real revolution in India will be happening as you read this forecast. After 34 years in undiluted power, the last of the Communists are going to resign themselves to their worldwide fate of extinction. They should get less than 60 seats in an assembly of 294 seats. That is elimination. Perhaps I exaggerate?at last count there was a Communist party in Cuba, North Korea and Venezuela.
Hints of this forthcoming doom are contained in the Communist manifesto, sorry, the CPM Election Manifesto for the 2011 state elections. Of the three main objectives stated in the manifesto, number one is the following, and it bears quotation in full: ?Our main objective is to improve [the] living standard of families below the poverty line and to create opportunities of employment.? Further, if the poor are the base of support for the CPM, then they have lots to worry about. By their own admission, poverty is down to only about 20%, according to the old official poverty line. Which means there are less and less supporters for those whose only slogan is ?for the benefit of the poor?. This is a key point and suggests that the CPM has been caught in a time-warp of its own making.
There are other indicators of this myopia. The manifesto starts off with how capitalism is dying under the burden of the great 2008 recession?remember, we are in 2011, but never fear. These are the opening lines: ?The ..election is being held against the backdrop of an unprecedented worldwide economic crisis? the hegemonistic western capitalist countries led by US imperialists have been shifting the onus of the crisis on to the Indian people.?
Perhaps the CPM can say what it wants because it has won for so long? since 1977, perhaps a world record. The CPM leaders, from Kolkata to Purulia, have the same answer to their superior success?we introduced land reforms. But weren?t the land reforms mostly completed in the early 1980s? Yes, but ? The next refrain of the leaders is that poverty has been reduced. According to the new Tendulkar poverty line, poverty in West Bengal was some 6 percentage points above the national average in 1983?65% vs 59%. In 2007-08, poverty in West Bengal was below the national average of 39% by 4 percentage points. So, perhaps, the CPM does have an ace up the sleeve; but that will be a hasty conclusion. Several states (for example, Andhra Pradesh, Assam, Tamil Nadu) have virtually the same record in reduction of poverty as West Bengal, but they neither had land reforms, nor a CPM government. Most importantly, they had several regime changes since the late 1970s. This suggests that poverty reduction cannot be the explanation behind the CPM?s past success at the polls.
Let us look at another indicator of performance for the poor and the population?education, and education especially of young girls aged 8 to 24. In 1983, the average attainment level of this population nationwide was 2.8 years and in West Bengal it was a bit higher at 3.1 years. Twenty four years later, and a year after their historic win of 233 seats, the nationwide average had more than doubled to 6 years; West Bengal was now below the national average at 5.7 years.
There are very few statistics which would indicate that the performance of the state of West Bengal under the Communists has been better than the national average. Which raises an additional question?if the performance of the West Bengal government has been no better than average, then why did they win time and again? I don?t know, but I suspect starting Friday May 13, historians will begin to answer this important question. There are various hypotheses floating around for their persistence in power but none of them pertain to love for the CPM?or even worse, because they ?performed?. What remains firm is the desire of the Bengali voter to change the government.
In a word, there is revulsion against the present regime. We know that familiarity breeds contempt, and the voter is just very familiar with the Communists. But in all this there is a lesson for the red dragon slayer, Ms Mamata Banerjee. What she will achieve is what no one (especially man!) has been able to do for three decades. Perhaps a dogged, persistent and obsessive pursuit of the Communists is what was needed to push them over the cliff. Most likely, yes.
But if one?s travels and anecdotal evidence are anything to go by, Ms Mamata is forewarned. Very few people seem to want to vote for her?but everyone wants to vote against the CPM. Which means that Bengal does not love Mamata less, but that it hates the CPM more. Which means that performance will be key to Mamata?s survival, perhaps more so than any chief minister in recent memory. Which means that West Bengal will be wide open for political competition. If Ms Mamata does not deliver, and deliver fast, she will find it difficult to win another term. Who will replace her is unknown, but it is extremely unlikely to be the CPM. So as you watch the returns, remember that India?s Jasmine Revolution and Tahrir Square is poribartan (change) in West Bengal. This is not a middle-aged hippie revolution?this is the real thing. Savour it.
The author is Chairman of Oxus Investments, an emerging market advisory and fund management firm