Zohran Kwame Mamdani may soon become the first Indian-American Muslim to contest the New York mayoral elections — with an election poll simulation on Monday predicting a clear victory. The startling projections showed the Democratic Socialist candidate leapfrogging over former Governor Andrew Cuomo to secure the nomination. Mamdani has projected himself as the anti-status quo alternative to his rival and vowed to be “Donald Trump’s worst nightmare” as a “progressive Muslim immigrant”. His campaign has been endorsed by several progressive politicians including Senator Bernie Sanders and US Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.
According to the Emerson College Polling data released on Monday, Mamdani is projected to defeat former Governor Andrew Cuomo after gaining ten points on the initial ballot test over the past month. The survey allowed voters to rank up to five candidates in order of preference and the ranked-choice voting simulation over eight rounds ended with Mamdani at 52% and Cuomo at 48%.
“We have gone from the margin of error to the margin of effort. On the day before the election, we stand on the verge of toppling a political dynasty and winning a city we can afford. But we can only do it with you,” the Indian-origin politician wrote on X in response.
How does ranked choice voting work?
The Mayoral contest will take place in early November this year with several leading political figures in the fray. The Republican Party has already picked Guardian Angels founder Curtis Sliwa as its nominee while incumbent Mayor Eric Adams is seeking re-election as an independent. There are eleven candidates are on the ballot in the Democratic mayoral primary — for which voting is currently underway. New York City uses ranked choice voting in its Democratic mayoral primary election on Tuesday.
The somewhat convoluted system allows voters to rank up to five candidates in order of preference while casting ballots. it one candidate emerges as the top choice for a majority of voters that person automatically wins the race. But if there is no candidate manages to hit the 50% threshold, the election goes into multiple rounds as per ranked choice analysis. Vote tabulation is done by computer in rounds. After the first round, the candidate in last place — the candidate ranked No. 1 by the fewest amount of people — is eliminated. The computer then looks at the ballots cast by people who ranked that candidate first, to see who they ranked second. Those people’s votes are then redistributed to their second choices.That process then repeats. As more candidates are eliminated, voters’ third, fourth and even fifth choices could potentially come into play. Rounds continue until there are only two candidates left. The one with the most votes wins.
(With inputs from agencies)