Russia still appear to be the biggest source of oil for India despite US efforts to break off the trade ties amid the Ukraine crisis. In September alone, New Delhi accounted for 34% of inbound shipments despite a 10% dip in imports in the first eight months of 2025, as per information provide Kpler. It further revealed that India’s state-owned refiners had cut down purchases of Russian oil by over 45% between June and September. Nonetheless, that didn’t necessarily seemed to have impacted crude shipments in the country.
Marking a 28-month high, Russia shipped 3.74 million barrels a day (kb/d) of crude in the four weeks to October 12, 2023. It is the highest such figure since June 2023, according to the data compiled by Bloomberg. This revelation also comes amid a slew of Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil refineries, with at least 28 such attacks having been launched since the commencement of August.
Consequently, the gross value of Russia’s exports soared by $60 million to a one-year high of $1.49 billion a week in the 28 days to October. The shipment flow to Asian customers (including those with no final destination) rose to 3.4 million barrels a day in the 28 days to October 12.
This too witnessed an increase from 3.19 million barrels a day in the period to October 5. In the four weeks to October 12, tankers’ flow destined for India dropped to 810,000 barrels a day, whereas those perceived to reach Chinese ports fell to 1.1 million barrels.
India’s state-owned vs private refiners buying Russian oil
Kpler’s Senior Crude Oil Analyst Naveen Das told The Hindu that India’s state-owned refiners acquired 600,000 barrels a day of oil from Russia in September, marking a “fairly substantial” drop form 1.1 million barrels a day in June.
Contrary to the other falling figures tied to India, the country’s privately-owned refiners Reliance Industries and Russia’s Rosneft-basked Nayara Energy seemed to have increased their quota. Kpler data indicated that Reliance Industries imports 850 kb/d of Russian oil, making it double of the 420 kb/d it got in January. On the flip side, Nayara got nearly 400 kb/d in October, registering its highest intake this year.
Officials, experts on India’s Russian oil imports
As opposed to the ups and downs, IndianOil Chairman Arvinder Singh Sahney told the Times of India, “We are buying crude as per the economics. We are not making any extra effort for either increasing or decreasing Russian crude.” He attributed his claims to the price and yield aligning with the products slate planned at a time.
On the other hand, Kpler expert Naveen Das also went on to explain how the discounted rates for India’s Russian oil imports could be significantly hit in the future. “Whilst there has been an uptick in exports in August and September, it is conceivable that there has been some production drop in Russia as well. As such lower availability of Russian oil would increase the price, and mean that India received lower discounts and that there is simply less Russian oil to buy on the market.”
For the time being, the data analyser still maintains that Russian oil barrels are the most economical options for Indian refiners, especially in light of their gross product margin (GPW) and discounts offered. The situation becomes more concerning in the October-December period in the face of the rising festive season demand.
On the same page of the discussion, the report further attributed the sunken import numbers to market dynamics instead of Donald Trump’s repeated tariff threats and other charged criticism directed at India for its ties with Russia. Nevertheless, one can’t help but take into account the imposition of 50% tariff on India over Russian oil imports, and other heightened pressures from Washington officials, including US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and White House Trade Advisor Peter Navarro.
More information will be added.