By Prof Rajan Kumar
The Hamas-Israel conflict has created a schadenfreude moment for Russia. To be sure, Moscow does not derive pleasure from the ongoing civilian casualties in Gaza or the Hamas’ attack on Israel earlier. Nevertheless, it certainly breathes a sigh of relief as Washington gets embroiled in the Palestinian issue, West Asia’s murkiest and most intractable conflict (Middle East). Moscow draws satisfaction from the fact that Washington can neither remain indifferent to the crisis nor enforce a deal between the warring parties. The United States has significant interests at stake in the region, and its dilemma is that any policy choice it makes is bound to generate controversy and backlash. Once again, it finds itself entrapped in the West Asian puddle. But America’s engagement in Gaza offers a much-needed breathing space for Russia.
First and foremost, the Israel-Hamas conflict has distracted Washington’s attention from the war in Ukraine. Ever since the onset of the Russia-Ukraine war in February 2022, Washington mobilised all its diplomatic resources to rejuvenate NATO, ensure a steady supply of weapons to Ukraine, and pressurise other states to comply with the economic sanctions on Russia. By July 2023, the US spent 76 billion dollars in humanitarian and military aid to Ukraine. Its total military aid constituted roughly 61 per cent of the aggregate spending. The war in Gaza is bound to impede Washington’s financial aid to Ukraine.
Second, Washington may cut down its supply of weapons to Ukraine. Currently, Israel’s immediate requirements are Iron Dome missile defence systems and munitions rather than tanks and armoured vehicles. However, it must prepare itself for a potential threat from Hezbollah forces. If the conflict in Gaza prolongs, it will need more missiles, drones and 155 mm artillery rounds. The US arms manufacturers are already under pressure to meet the demands in Ukraine. According to some reports, a large chunk of 155mm artillery shells meant for Ukraine was transferred to Israel. Ukraine and Israel are likely to compete for stinger missiles, smart bombs and 155 mm artillery rounds. Ukraine has already suffered heavy casualties during its hyped counteroffensive. With further rationing of weapons, Ukraine would find it extremely difficult to maintain the momentum and expel Russian forces from its territories.
Third, the conflict between Israel and Hamas enriches Moscow’s narrative critical of the Western countries. The mainstream Western media worked overtime to project the Ukraine war as a conflict between a democracy and an autocracy. In its perspective, the West had the moral responsibility to protect Ukraine. The Western narrative held that if Russia succeeded in capturing parts of Ukraine, NATO states would come under threat. Further, it would encourage China to undertake similar aggression against Taiwan. Despite its serious efforts, Moscow was losing the information war against the West. The war in Gaza has changed the narrative against the West. Russian President Vladimir Putin, in his United Nations Security Council speech, blamed the West for the crisis in Gaza. He cursed the ‘ruling elites of the US’ and their ‘satellites’ for the killing of Gaza’s civilians and compared it with conflicts in Ukraine, Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria. People in Islamic states subscribe to such a narrative and blame the West for empowering Israel. Most of the states of the Global South, even the ones that recognise the state of Israel, acknowledge that Jewish settlements and segregationist policies amount to forced occupation. The increasing number of casualties in Gaza, coupled with the hesitancy of Washington to endorse a ceasefire, is perceived as a double standard maintained by the US.
Russia has taken full advantage of this situation. There is no evidence to suggest that Moscow either played a role in provoking Hamas or supplying weapons to them. But it has activated its back-channel diplomacy and hosted high-ranking Hamas delegates in Moscow on October 26. Apparently, it was an attempt to demonstrate its ability to negotiate and reserve a berth as a mediator in future. Russia has categorically cast its ballot in favour of Palestine. It never blamed Hamas for its attack on Israel on October 7. Further, it called for an immediate ceasefire and continues to support Iran in West Asia. It risks losing its evolving trust with Israel, but its benefits far outweigh its losses.
Ukraine is turning into a liability for the West. Israel has deep historical, security and economic ties with the US and the West. Metaphorically, the difference between Israel and Ukraine for the West is that of a difference between a biological and an adopted child. Zelensky is no longer a priority either for the US or Europe. The media attention has shifted entirely to Gaza now. The Russia-Ukraine war has become stale news. The debate in the US is getting fiercer over its support of Ukraine. With the Republican Party dominating the House of Representatives, the Biden administration will find it extremely difficult to mobilise resources for Ukraine.
The Israel-Hamas conflict has widened the gulf between the West and the rest. The sympathy for the plight of the civilians in Gaza is growing. A majority of the states supported the West during the Russia-Ukraine war, but that is no longer the case in the Israel-Hamas conflict. In a UN General Assembly resolution, 120 states called for an immediate ceasefire while the US remained steadfast in its support of Israel. Among the BRICS states, only India seems to maintain a balance; others are clearly leaning towards Palestine. Some states in the Global South have taken the extreme step of severing ties with Israel. The Global South, in general, is critical of Israel occupying Palestinian territory and subjecting people in the West Bank and Gaza to apartheid-like discrimination.
Conscious of the growing rift between the West and the rest, Moscow has anchored its policy firmly with the Global South and never misses an opportunity to highlight the Western double standards. In short, the Israel-Hamas conflict has turned out to be a blessing in disguise for Moscow.
The author teaches in the School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, Delhi.
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