As Donald Trump meets Vladimir Putin in Alaska on Friday, the rest of the world is waiting with bated breath. Its potential repercussions could go far beyond Russia and Ukraine, who are at war since 2022, and even impact India. Ritwik Sharma explains why
Why are Trump & Putin meeting in Alaska?
Last week, US President Donald Trump announced that he would meet Russian premier Vladimir Putin in Alaska on Friday. The two nations have agreed to discuss ways to end the war in Ukraine. However, days earlier, the US administration’s official position was that Trump would be willing to meet Putin only if the latter agreed to meet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Friday marks the deadline set by Trump for Russia to agree to a ceasefire or face more US sanctions. Putin has ignored previous such deadlines from Trump, who too has failed to follow through on his threats.
Since February 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine, the US, UK, European Union, and others such as Australia, Canada, and Japan have imposed sanctions targeting Russia’s economic growth and its war machinery. Multiple rounds of direct talks between Russia and Ukraine this year have failed to bring the warring nations closer to peace, which Trump had pledged to achieve within 24 hours of becoming president.
Where does Ukraine figure in the negotiations?
Ukraine has not been invited to the meeting in Alaska. According to reports, the White House has said Trump is willing to include Zelenskyy as well, but for now the meeting would be only between the US President and Putin, as requested by the latter. Trump has earlier said he planned to “start off with Russia”, while hinting at the possibility of a trilateral meeting, the likelihood of which is remote given that Putin has spurned many opportunities to hold direct talks with Zelenskyy. Trump has also suggested that in Friday’s meeting there “will be some swapping of territories” between Moscow and Kyiv. However, Zelenskyy has dismissed any outcome without Ukraine’s involvement as “dead decisions”. Moscow has sought conditions such as Ukraine’s withdrawal of forces from regions that it has annexed and to abandon Kyiv’s bid to join NATO. Ukraine, meanwhile, is opposed to ceding any territory and rejects Russian demands for a neutral status of the invaded nation.
What can the meet deliver?
The summit is a diplomatic win for the Russian leader, who has been a pariah for the West since the war started. The equation between the two has soured of late, although Trump has long harboured an admiration for the Russian president as a strongman. Putin has maintained a maximalist position seeking territorial gains (Russia occupies nearly 20% land in Ukraine which includes Crimea that it annexed in 2014), Ukraine’s neutrality, and limiting its military size. Experts suggest Putin could use Alaska as a photo-op exercise to defer sanctions. The Trump administration, meanwhile, has been trying to persuade European nations to agree to a ceasefire deal that involves handing over Ukrainian land to Russia. On Tuesday, however, the White House downplayed the upcoming meeting by stating that it would be a “listening exercise” for Trump to better understand how to end the war.
What is at stake for Europe?
The Russia-Ukraine war is the largest in the continent since the end of World War II. Since Ukraine and European nations have been sidelined for this summit, they are worried about the potential security implications of any agreements emerging from the summit. Ukraine and its European allies fear that the exclusion could allow Putin more favourable terms and concessions from a deal with Trump, who is hungry for a Nobel Peace Prize and may view the meeting as a step in that direction. They also fear that Putin might be emboldened to set his sights on more foreign territory.
In order to ensure that their voices are heard ahead of Friday, Zelenskyy travelled to Berlin on Wednesday to join German Chancellor Friedrich Merz for a video call with Trump, Reuters reported. Merz also plans to talk to other European leaders as well as NATO.
How it will impact India
The meeting in Alaska could have significant impact on world affairs beyond Europe and include nations such as India. For instance, it could also decide the fate of the additional 25% tariff that Trump has recently slapped on India as a penalty for buying oil from Russia. If there is a ceasefire in Ukraine or a peace deal, the US stance against Russia’s key trade partners, which includes India, might mellow.
Prabir De, professor at the Research and Information System for Developing Countries in New Delhi, points out that a prolonged ceasefire or peace would revive trade between other nations including India and Ukraine, which is a foodgrain hub.
He says it could help India reduce its fertiliser dependence on a country like China that has curbed exports by importing from Ukraine which was a key supplier before the ongoing war. Also, De adds, such a scenario would be a boost for multilateralism and the UN system which India has always championed, and sanctions on India’s import of Russian oil could even be lifted.