Boris Johnson: End of the Road

By Abhishek Khajuria

Yesterday, outside 10, Downing Street, a 6 minute 30 second speech marked the beginning of the end of Boris Johnson’s tumultuous tenure as the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, as he announced his resignation as the leader of the Conservative party, which for many, was a long time in the making.

Nothing in that address to the press persons and a few of his supporters lined outside (there were a few protesters shouting ‘liar’ as well), signalling anything different from the Boris Johnson we have come to know ever since he took over as the Prime Minister of the UK in 2019 or even before that. His tone was defiant as usual albeit a little mild form his usual standards. He made no mention of the Chris Pincher scandal leave alone any apology on that account (though he made one a few days ago). If one goes by the content of the address, the focus of Johnson remained on how “sad” he was on giving up “the best job in the world” and how he led his Conservatives to their biggest electoral victory since 1987 (in terms of seats) and 1979 (in terms of vote share). There were veiled attacks on his opponents (the “herd mentality”) within the party that showed how his efforts to stay on as the PM (changing governments at present was “eccentric” in his opinion) till the end were thwarted by his colleagues. He lauded his successes in that short address as well which ranged from getting Brexit done to the fastest vaccine rollout in Europe. Importantly, he also announced that he was going to stay on as the PM till the next leader was elected by the party. This can stretch as long as till October unless there are less candidates in the fray or efforts are made to quicken the process.

HOW IT CAME TO ALL THIS?

As already mentioned above, it was a long time in the making. Forever controversial and projecting himself as a ‘people’s man’ with that famous hairstyle of his, a series of events have contributed to the present state of affairs for Johnson. Seeds were sown with the lockdown violating parties in 10, Downing Street during the initial phase of the pandemic in 2020 in what came to be known as the partygate scandal after a damning assessment in a report by Sue Gray, a senior civil servant. This led to fines being imposed on Johnson and his Chancellor Rishi Sunak. The aftermath of this was a no-confidence vote against the former by his own party which he narrowly survived. But the Chris Pincher scandal proved to be the last nail in the coffin for BoJo (as Johnson is known as). After some initial reports suggested that Johnson was not aware of sexual misconduct complaints against Pincher (a new complaint came on 29^th June this year) before he appointed him deputy chief whip in February of this year, it came to light that it was known to him as far back as in 2019, when he was made the Minister of State for Europe and the Americas. Thus, the shifting stances sealed the fate of Johnson as questions of ethics and integrity kept on mounting even as he apologised. Almost simultaneous resignations of Health Secretary Sajid Javid and Chancellor Sunak led to a domino effect of top-level resignations whose number had risen to 59 by yesterday. But the final blow came when newly-appointed Chancellor Nadhim Zahawi told the PM that it was time to go and ultimately, that 6 minute 30 second address in front of the doors of 10, Downing Street, came.

WHAT HAPPENS NOW?

Conservatives will now hold a leadership election to elect a new leader who will then replace Johnson as the Prime Minister. The process is likely to take some amount of time as there are going to be a number of candidates for the top job in addition to the already-mentioned Sunak, Javid and Zahawi. Attorney General Suella Braverman has already indicated her desire to run while others like Ben Wallace, Liz Truss and Penny Mordaunt are among a host of others termed as the likely contenders. It is important to highlight here that in case, any one of Sunak, Javid, Zahawi or Braverman goes to the post of the PM, it will be a momentous event in the UK’s political history due to their being of Asian heritage.

While most of the eyes will be glued to the leadership election, it would be important not to lose sight of other equally important issues plaguing the county at the moment. As he promised, Johnson ‘got Brexit done’. But it came up with its own peculiarities. The Northern Ireland Protocol (NIP), which ultimately got the Brexit deal with the EU over the line, remains a bone of contention in the country where the arch-conservatives and the Unionists in Northern Ireland remain opposed to it tooth and nail. Any re-appearance of hard border on the island of Ireland threatens the unravelling of the Good Friday Agreement the thought of only which is enough to send shivers down the spines of those who have lived through The Troubles.Already, legislation has been initiated by the UK recently to unilaterally override some parts of the protocol in response to which, the EU has taken legal action. It will be interesting to see how the relations with the continent evolve when Johnson’s successor takes over; how hard or soft on Brexit he or she is going to be and what ultimately becomes of the NIP. The present cost-of-living crisis which is threatening recession, is another critical item on the agenda. Inflation is hovering around double-digits while recently, there has been an uptick in taxes as well, leading to a double whammy. The Scots have set yet another date for an independence referendum. On the foreign policy front, when it comes to Ukraine, does the enthusiasm remain the same in a post-Johnson era, remains to be seen (Ukrainians expressed disappointment at Johnson’s resignation). When it comes to the “Global Britain” foreign policy agenda, it is safe to assume that similar efforts would be made, especially in the Indo-Pacific. However, how the nuances of this agenda would shape up under a new Prime Minister, would take some guesswork.

THE VIEW FROM INDIA:

The first reaction from India has been that of caution with spokesperson of the MEA, Arindam Bagchi terming it as an “internal development” of the UK which India was “closely watching”.

Johnson’s tenure will be remembered in India for the strengthening and deepening of the comprehensive strategic partnership between the two countries, the highlights of which have been the increased focus on cooperation in digital sphere, the Oxford AstraZeneca Covishield vaccine and the recently started negotiations on a bilateral free trade agreement (FTA). The latter got a strong push when Johnson, after a virtual summit with Indian PM Narendra Modi in 2021, came to the Indian shores in April 2022, to meet his “khaas dost” (special friend). The summit adopted the “India-UK Roadmap 2030” for taking the partnership ahead for the next 10 years which also includes an ambitious goal of doubling the bilateral trade by 2030 in addition to stressing upon cooperation between the two to maintain a free, open and secure Indo-Pacific.His visit also got headlines for him spinning charkha and his photo with the JCB digger which went viral got him some criticism which he brushed aside in his usual style saying the factory was a “living, breathing incarnation of the umbilicus between the UK and India”.

There has been some concern in India that what course India’s ties with the UK would take in the aftermath of Johnson relinquishing office. But at the outset, optimism regarding the bilateral relationship should remain high irrespective of a change in leadership at 10, Downing Street. An important reason for this is that unlike many other bilateral relationships, India-UK is not driven just by government-to-government contacts, people-to-people relations are an important pillar of what is a multifaceted partnership. In a post-Brexit scenario, India has emerged as an important component of theUK’s outreach to the rest of the world independent of the EU. This has happened because of the sheer size of the market which India offers along with it being a Commonwealth country with which the UK wants to take relations to a new high. The strategic location of India in the Indian Ocean along with the above reasons plus it being a democracy explains why India is such an important pillar of the UK’s Indo-Pacific tilt to uphold a rules-based order in addition to securing its economic and strategic interests. When it comes to the FTA, again a milestone in the making, officials on both sides are hopeful of making it a reality by Diwali this year though we shouldn’t rule out it getting a little delayed due to the changes in the UK.

It would not be wrong to assert that India has almost become a consensus topic (similar in the US in case of India) in the UK, enjoying strong relations with which is now a foreign policy imperative for the country, especially in the changing world order as we are witnessing today. The same holds true for India also as it looks for allies in a new world with a dominant China and a weakened traditional partner in Russia which is gradually getting into the Chinese embrace.

WAY AHEAD:

The UK is in a moment of flux today with the political crisis coinciding with an economic crisis. As of now, it is uncertain how long these two last, but it is definitely in UK’s own, its other partners and that of India’s interests to see the back of these. Till then, all the concerned parties wait with optimism in their hearts and concern in their minds.

(Author is a Doctoral Candidate at the Centre for European Studies, School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University. Views expressed are personal and do not reflect the official position or policy of Financial Express Online. Reproducing this content without permission is prohibited).