By Zahoor Ahmad Dar

In international relations, temporality and context are significant factors shaping the behaviour and response of actors. Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi visited Kabul on March 24, 2022. Taliban Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi and Wang focused on political and economic issues including the mining sector and Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) projects in Afghanistan. The visit comes when China is rapidly making inroads into Kabul since Afghanistan is now devoid of the Americans. China is strategically dominating the Asian hemisphere amid the retrenchment of the United States. In the thick of US’ inexpedient military presence in Afghanistan (2001-2021), Chinese involvement in Afghanistan had been tight and short of multidimensionalism. Prima facie, Beijing harbored skepticism towards Western backed government in Afghanistan. Adding to the strategic dilemma was the US-Taliban impasse which propelled China to direct its focus on economic assistance and diplomacy.

Chinese Afghan Policy

Relationship between China and Afghanistan was cemented with the signing of the Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation and Good Neighborly Relations in 2006. Furthermore, the signing of a comprehensive cooperation partnership in 2010 and customs free trade in 2017 has deepened the engagement. China adopted a proactive role in Afghanistan that began in the past decade. From 2002-13 periods Beijing provided just $240 million in aid to Afghanistan, however, in 2014 alone China gave $80 million in aid and pledged an additional $240 million over the next three years. In September 2017, China extended $90 million toward development projects in Afghanistan’s Badakhshan province alone. Assistance was granted towards humanitarian causes too as China provided the war-torn country millions of dollars in aid for building hospitals, power stations and more.

In 2014 the Chinese also took up the larger role in Afghanistan and played a mediator in the Afghan peace process to bring Taliban and Afghanistan on the negotiating table. Chinese Foreign minister Wang Yi initiated shuttle diplomacy between Pakistan and Afghanistan in 2014 to facilitate the Afghan Peace process. As a virtue of Chinese endeavors strenuous relations cooled off paving way for greater coordination. Successful peacemaking is vital for ensuring stability in the region, which in turn is guided by Beijing’s need to secure the future of China’s Belt and Road Initiative. Nonetheless to China’s dismay, its efforts did not yield expected results yet. In some measure it could be a result of the worsening relations between Afghanistan and Pakistan on account of continuing Taliban attacks in Kabul.

Beijing looks at Afghanistan as a geo-strategic hotspot, located at the intersection of South Asia, Central Asia, Middle East and Europe. This allows China an access for import of crude oil and gas from West Asia. Explanations for relentless engagement in rebuilding infrastructure capacities in Afghanistan can be traced to Kabul’s geo-strategic significance to the Chinese BRI project. However, insurgency in Afghanistan and the possibility of it spilling over into Chinese territory through the Wakhan Corridor into Xinjiang can’t be ignored. Post US withdrawal in 2021 Taliban forces seized much of province (Wakhan Corridor) which borders Xinjiang, a largely Muslim region in western China. Beijing has been apprehensive of East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM) fighters entering Xinjiang region through Afghanistan’s Wakhan corridor to radicalize Uyghur’s or carry out attacks in China. Many Uighur fighters remained focused on devising attacks against China, especially the ETIM which seeks to establish an Islamic state of East Turkistan in Xinjiang. ETIM is known to have bases in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Therefore, the primary objective of China stepping up activity in and around Afghanistan is China’s domestic security imperatives concerning the Xinjiang province.

The fears that the ideological influences of pan-Islamic groups operating in the tribal areas of Pakistan and Afghanistan might spill over into China, accentuating separatism in Xinjiang is inducing a security threat to China are very real. This not only jeopardizes the security of China but also the safety and stability of the BRI Project. Thus, China would try to secure a Stable neighborhood in its contiguity for its own domestic and regional ambitions. Beijing has openly urged the Taliban to make a clean break with other terrorist groups, particularly the East Turkestan Islamic Movement and Islamic State.

Besides securing its geo-strategic and geo-political interests in Afghanistan, China is also looking for opportunities to meet its global power projections. China also has other motives for Afghanistan which are quite akin to its motives in other countries that have till now been a part of BRI. China’s strategic agenda includes extraction of rich hydrocarbons and resources for its own development. It is the biggest foreign investor in Afghanistan. According to the Chinese ministry of foreign affairs, the bilateral trade volume between the countries reached almost 550 million dollars in 2017. With the opening of the China-Afghanistan air corridor, Afghanistan is expected to export 23000 tons of saffron, various gemstones to China. Beijing’s role has grown from supplying Afghanistan with telecom equipment in 2007 to the construction of a fiber optic link in 2017.

Beijing is cognizant that it needs a congenial security paradigm in the region to propel its economic interests. Since 2013, China has made substantial investments in Central Asia and Pakistan via the China-Central Asia-West Asia and China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). These investments around Afghanistan have drastically increased Beijing’s involvement in the region. A stable Afghanistan would reduce security threats, improve investment climate, and assist China to advance its economic goals. Thereupon, the onus lies on Taliban’s shoulders to withdraw its support to its terrorist allies.

Strategic Interest of Taliban

On the other hand, the Taliban also stands to gain from China. It aims to leverage China’s regional and global sway to secure a seat for itself at the round table of recognized nations. Over and above that, it wants to involve China in resolving Kabul’s internal political chaos. They have succeeded for the first time in engaging directly with China since the end of the Taliban regime in 2001.

China is not averse to initiating a dialogue with the Taliban, which is different from the Indo-centric position or US-centric one. China has maintained direct communication with the Taliban administration, and both sides have met bilaterally and internationally, to discuss plans for Afghanistan reconstruction. China in a way is trying to engage Afghanistan through multilateral frameworks to avoid unilateralism. China began the process of accommodation way back in 2005 by signing a protocol to establish the SCO-Afghanistan Contact group. In 2012, Afghanistan became observant in SCO. Moreover, China hosted the meeting of foreign ministers of Russia and central Asian countries as a part of the Istanbul Process in 2014 to discuss post-2014 scenarios in Afghanistan.

In June 2021 Taliban leaders visited Tehran, Moscow, Turkmenistan for talks. Welcoming Taliban leaders on their soil is symbolic of the increasing legitimacy that China’s and its regional allies have bestowed on the Afghan government led by Taliban. It also personifies the essential characteristic of rapid shift in regional and global affairs. China has been careful to keep its military role in Afghanistan geographically limited. China is not expanding its role (either geographical or military) to evade being caught in a quagmire as did the British, Soviets and Americans.

Therefore, strategic drivers will play a critical role in shaping the future bonhomie between Beijing and Kabul. Taliban’s insistence would primarily focus on political stability in Afghanistan, ideological recognition, economic investment and revenue. Since the West is not recognizing the Taliban, Afghanistan has to work in contiguity with China. By aligning with China not only appropriates them recognition but also legitimacy by rising regional hegemon in the Asian hemisphere. Taliban has reassured China that they would not challenge Chinese investment in Afghanistan by showing how economic engagement has strengthened the economic and security interaction between the two. Also, Taliban needs backing of VETO power so as to balance with the other mediating powers in the region such as Pakistan and India. Hence, Taliban as de-facto power in Afghanistan is hedging with China. Beijing cannot afford to have an unstable Afghanistan in its neighborhood as it can escalate vulnerability to China’s economic ambitions of BRI as well as its flagship project of CPEC.

(The author is a Senior Commissioning editor at E-International Relations. And a Post-Grad in International Relations from the School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi. His articles have featured in various national dailies and international journals including Financial Express, The Geopolitics, E-International Relations, The Sage. He can be reached at zahoorjnu@gmail.com. Views expressed are personal and do not reflect the official position or policy of Financial Express Online. Reproducing this content without permission is prohibited).