Amid concerns over wheat stocks plummeting to a seven-year-low, the government expects the current rabi crop to be robust, while harvesting of winter crops – chana and mustard –have already commenced in several states.
Traders and officials said that prices of chana, a vital pulses variety, are expected to rule above minimum support price (MSP) because of lower sown area in the current season. Farmers fear that mustard prices are expected to rule below MSP because of cheaper imports of edible oils.
Food Secretary Sanjeev Chopra has said that there has not been any premature warming up of weather so far. “If the weather continues to remain so for the next 10-15 days we can expect a bumper harvest of wheat,” Chopra stated.
The harvesting of wheat would commence in Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat and Maharashtra in the next couple of days while arrivals of crops in mandis would begin end of next month in Punjab, Haryana and Rajasthan.
The government has set a higher wheat production target of a record 114 million tonne (MT) for the 2023-24 crop year (July-June) against an estimated output of 110.5 MT in 2022-23.
Meanwhile, Gyanendra Singh, director, Indian Institute of wheat and barley research, an institute based in Karnal, Haryana, told FE that there have been no reports of yellow rust disease in crops and conducive weather conditions so far, the standing wheat crops at present looks ‘promising’.
A bumper harvest of wheat this season would give a boost to the government’s procurement drive as well as stocks which have declined to seven years low at 10.62 MT at present from buffer.
Farmers fear that due to an expectation of a bumper output and higher imports, the mustard seed prices would be ruling below the MSP of Rs 5650/quintal announced for the 2024-25 season. Traders said that the harvesting of early sown varieties has commenced and the arrivals are likely to peak by the middle of next month.
Roop Singh, CEO, Uttan Mustard Producers Company, a FPO based in Bharatpur district of Rajasthan, the hub of oilseed trade said that while in 2020 and 2021 the farmers have received remunerative prices which was reasonably more than MSP, last year the mandi prices were around the MSP of Rs 5450/quintal (2022-23 season) because of sharp increase in imports of edible oil.
“Mustard output is likely to be record this year, but we are apprehensive that mandi prices would fall below MSP this year as well,” Singh said.
The agriculture ministry has estimated mustard seed production at 12.64 MT in the 2022-23 crop year (July-June).
The country imports about 58% of the total annual edible oil consumption of around 24 to 25 MT. Share of domestic edible oil includes mustard (40%), soyabean (24%) and groundnut (7%) and others.
India’s import of edible oils – palm, soybean and sunflower – rose 17% on year to a record 16.47 MT in the 2022-23 oil year (November-October), helped by lower import tariffs of only 5.5% on crude oil imports.
The harvesting of chana, which had 47% share in the country’s record pulses output of 26.05 MT in 2022-23 crop years, has commenced in Maharashtra and Karnataka.
Traders said the prices are likely rule above the MSP of Rs 5440/quintal for the 2024-24 season as sowing this season has been 16 million hectare (mh), against 16.61 mh in the previous season (2022-23).
As per the agriculture ministry, the wheat sowing this season (2023-224) was at a record 34 million hectare (mh) against 33.75 mh reported during the same period previous season.
Similarly, area under chana this season 16 mh, against 16.61 mh in the previous season (2022-23). Mustard, a key oilseed, has been sown in a record 10.04 mh compared to 9.79 mh in the previou season.